Audit Selection Report for SUNSHINE FIRE PROTECTION DISTRICT BALLOT QUESTION 5A

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 100.0%

See additional statistical information below...

The audit units are reported for selection in priority order, based on the threshholds below, and the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator using the random seed value 123456789012345 combined with the Batch sequence numbers.

Select the top 1 audit units.

Batch Seq Threshhold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots NO Over Under YES
Totals 65 0 11 164
000109 0.011140 0.019402 0.574146 AB p119_mb_112 None 2 1 0 0 1
000089 0.011140 0.020239 0.550423 AB p040_mb_092 None 2 1 0 0 1
000185 0.214041 0.444207 0.481850 ED p240_ed_190 None 43 18 0 3 22
000099 0.016663 0.052834 0.315390 AB p132_mb_102 None 3 0 0 0 3
000321 0.011140 0.038282 0.290993 AB p342_mb_327 None 2 0 0 1 1
000049 0.011140 0.046210 0.241069 EV p084_mb_045 None 2 1 0 0 1
000131 0.005586 0.035825 0.155911 AB p156_mb_134 None 1 1 0 0 0
000330 0.033049 0.258263 0.127965 EV p370_ev_314 None 6 1 0 0 5
000289 0.005586 0.044055 0.126786 AB p315_mb_292 None 1 0 0 0 1
000298 0.016663 0.155248 0.107333 AB p330_mb_304 None 3 0 0 0 3
000214 0.011140 0.110189 0.101098 EV p257_ev_217 None 2 0 0 0 2
000306 0.016663 0.172179 0.096778 EV p296_ev_288 None 3 0 0 0 3
000181 0.005586 0.069742 0.080089 AB p211_mb_186 None 1 0 0 0 1
000297 0.011140 0.152508 0.073045 AB p329_mb_303 None 2 0 0 0 2
000161 0.011140 0.167594 0.066469 AB p224_mb_165 None 2 2 0 0 0
000217 0.016663 0.254976 0.065352 AB p227_mb_222 None 3 0 0 1 2
000220 0.016663 0.260432 0.063983 AB p269_mb_225 None 3 0 0 0 3
000336 0.016663 0.264425 0.063017 EV j262_ev_102 None 3 1 0 0 2
000343 0.016663 0.266065 0.062628 ED j269_ed_012 None 3 2 0 0 1
000038 0.011140 0.187878 0.059293 AB p049_mb_040 None 2 1 0 0 1
000323 0.016663 0.287087 0.058042 AB p344_mb_329 None 3 0 0 0 3
000063 0.005586 0.103210 0.054118 EV p111_ev_066 None 1 1 0 0 0
000120 0.022156 0.423342 0.052335 AB p116_mb_124 None 4 2 0 0 2
000223 0.016663 0.328635 0.050704 AB p242_mb_228 None 3 2 0 0 1
000029 0.011140 0.224555 0.049609 EV p039_ev_031 None 2 1 0 0 1
000123 0.022156 0.491546 0.045073 AB p147_mb_126 None 4 0 0 0 4
000213 0.011140 0.265241 0.041999 AB p256_mb_218 None 2 0 0 0 2
000266 0.005586 0.137003 0.040770 AB p282_mb_272 None 1 0 0 0 1
000172 0.016663 0.432821 0.038499 AB p199_mb_177 None 3 2 0 0 1
000102 0.022156 0.660949 0.033521 EV p164_ev_105 None 4 2 0 0 2
000087 0.011140 0.333323 0.033421 EV p150_ev_090 None 2 0 0 0 2
000255 0.016663 0.527335 0.031599 AB p310_mb_261 None 3 0 0 0 3
000159 0.011140 0.383288 0.029064 AB p222_mb_163 None 2 1 0 0 1
000082 0.011140 0.384083 0.029004 AB p125_mb_084 None 2 2 0 0 0
000037 0.011140 0.409815 0.027183 AB p048_mb_039 None 2 2 0 0 0
000210 0.022156 0.842534 0.026296 AB p248_mb_215 None 4 0 0 0 4
000320 0.005586 0.218884 0.025518 AB p341_mb_326 None 1 0 0 0 1
000292 0.022156 0.873475 0.025365 AB p325_mb_298 None 4 2 0 0 2
000044 0.005586 0.223410 0.025001 AB p086_mb_047 None 1 0 0 0 1
000013 0.005586 0.241425 0.023136 AB p098_mb_015 None 1 0 0 0 1
000078 0.016663 0.722395 0.023067 AB p075_mb_081 None 3 2 0 0 1
000012 0.016663 0.730544 0.022809 AB p097_mb_014 None 3 0 0 0 3
000251 0.016663 0.738502 0.022563 AB p462_mb_256 None 3 1 0 1 1
000003 0.011140 0.543492 0.020497 AB p034_ev_003 None 2 2 0 0 0
000269 0.016663 0.822855 0.020250 AB p285_mb_275 None 3 0 0 0 3
000093 0.005586 0.278659 0.020044 AB p064_mb_096 None 1 0 0 0 1
000036 0.005586 0.282156 0.019796 AB p047_mb_038 None 1 0 0 0 1
000279 0.011140 0.578051 0.019271 AB p337_mb_285 None 2 0 0 0 2
000154 0.005586 0.296590 0.018832 AB p136_mb_158 None 1 1 0 0 0
000230 0.005586 0.299811 0.018630 AB p272_mb_235 None 1 0 0 0 1
000227 0.011140 0.608819 0.018297 AB p266_mb_232 None 2 0 0 0 2
000218 0.016663 0.922602 0.018061 AB p261_mb_223 None 3 0 0 0 3
000162 0.005586 0.309500 0.018047 AB p225_mb_166 None 1 0 0 1 0
000105 0.011140 0.634666 0.017552 AB p169_mb_108 None 2 0 0 0 2
000086 0.005586 0.344861 0.016196 EV p120_ev_089 None 1 0 0 0 1
000025 0.011140 0.703005 0.015846 AB p080_mb_024 None 2 0 0 0 2
000056 0.011140 0.703986 0.015824 AB p071_mb_059 None 2 0 0 0 2
000090 0.011140 0.721946 0.015430 AB p115_mb_093 None 2 0 0 0 2
000077 0.011140 0.776060 0.014354 AB p109_mb_080 None 2 0 0 0 2
000035 0.011140 0.790280 0.014096 AB p046_mb_037 None 2 0 0 0 2
000310 0.011140 0.800986 0.013908 AB p367_mb_316 None 2 0 0 0 2
000235 0.011140 0.814096 0.013684 AB p271_mb_240 None 2 2 0 0 0
000324 0.011140 0.819979 0.013586 AB p345_mb_330 None 2 0 0 0 2
000174 0.005586 0.414090 0.013489 AB p229_mb_179 None 1 0 0 0 1
000315 0.005586 0.421789 0.013242 AB p354_mb_321 None 1 0 0 0 1
000001 0.011140 0.844208 0.013196 AB p058_mb_002 None 2 0 0 0 2
000031 0.011140 0.849098 0.013120 AB p055_mb_029 None 2 0 0 0 2
000316 0.005586 0.428897 0.013023 AB p353_mb_322 None 1 0 0 0 1
000305 0.005586 0.430208 0.012983 AB p357_mb_311 None 1 0 0 0 1
000160 0.011140 0.860238 0.012950 AB p223_mb_164 None 2 0 0 0 2
000237 0.005586 0.433631 0.012881 EV p243_ev_220 None 1 1 0 0 0
000156 0.011140 0.890713 0.012507 AB p144_mb_160 None 2 0 0 0 2
000016 0.005586 0.446628 0.012506 AB p066_mb_018 None 1 0 0 1 0
000005 0.005586 0.447939 0.012469 AB p088_mb_006 None 1 0 0 0 1
000157 0.011140 0.903133 0.012335 AB p139_mb_161 None 2 0 0 0 2
000047 0.005586 0.458785 0.012175 AB p036_mb_050 None 1 1 0 0 0
000140 0.011140 0.935750 0.011905 AB p167_mb_139 None 2 1 0 0 1
000205 0.005586 0.471755 0.011840 EV p190_ev_203 None 1 1 0 0 0
000067 0.005586 0.484519 0.011528 EV p101_ev_070 None 1 0 0 0 1
000008 0.011140 0.966987 0.011520 AB p092_mb_010 None 2 0 0 0 2
000267 0.005586 0.508336 0.010988 AB p283_mb_273 None 1 0 0 0 1
000111 0.005586 0.529554 0.010548 AB p148_mb_113 None 1 0 0 0 1
000253 0.005586 0.541457 0.010316 AB p308_mb_259 None 1 0 0 0 1
000148 0.005586 0.557647 0.010016 EV p153_ev_131 None 1 1 0 0 0
000258 0.005586 0.569512 0.009808 AB p302_mb_264 None 1 0 0 0 1
000241 0.005586 0.580729 0.009618 AB p300_mb_245 None 1 0 0 0 1
000033 0.005586 0.650041 0.008593 AB p044_mb_035 None 1 0 0 0 1
000007 0.005586 0.670483 0.008331 AB p090_mb_008 None 1 0 0 0 1
000228 0.005586 0.693737 0.008051 AB p267_mb_233 None 1 1 0 0 0
000057 0.005586 0.716406 0.007797 AB p072_mb_060 None 1 0 0 0 1
000256 0.005586 0.727802 0.007675 AB p272_mb_262 None 1 0 0 1 0
000141 0.005586 0.743640 0.007511 AB p188_mb_145 None 1 0 0 0 1
000278 0.005586 0.746212 0.007485 AB p336_mb_284 None 1 0 0 0 1
000070 0.005586 0.748420 0.007463 EV p104_ev_073 None 1 0 0 0 1
000040 0.005586 0.749023 0.007457 AB p050_mb_041 None 1 1 0 0 0
000212 0.005586 0.754360 0.007404 AB p258_mb_216 None 1 0 0 1 0
000300 0.005586 0.755475 0.007393 AB p331_mb_306 None 1 0 0 0 1
000335 0.005586 0.772549 0.007230 EV j260_ev_101 None 1 0 0 0 1
000083 0.005586 0.778919 0.007171 AB p056_mb_086 None 1 0 0 0 1
000200 0.005586 0.797023 0.007008 AB p221_mb_204 None 1 0 0 0 1
000283 0.005586 0.802735 0.006958 AB p311_mb_289 None 1 1 0 0 0
000301 0.005586 0.826476 0.006758 AB p333_mb_307 None 1 0 0 0 1
000024 0.005586 0.837711 0.006668 EV p052_ev_026 None 1 0 0 0 1
000318 0.005586 0.881054 0.006340 AB p364_mb_324 None 1 0 0 0 1
000295 0.005586 0.897942 0.006220 AB p249_mb_301 None 1 1 0 0 0
000151 0.005586 0.901413 0.006196 AB p171_mb_155 None 1 1 0 0 0
000064 0.005586 0.925999 0.006032 EV p112_ev_067 None 1 1 0 0 0
000026 0.005586 0.940189 0.005941 AB p054_ev_028 None 1 0 0 0 1
000264 0.005586 0.949815 0.005881 AB p276_mb_270 None 1 0 0 0 1
000177 0.005586 0.962787 0.005801 AB p215_mb_182 None 1 0 0 1 0
000061 0.005586 0.980867 0.005694 EV p016_mb_053 None 1 0 0 0 1
000232 0.005586 0.990560 0.005639 AB p274_mb_237 None 1 0 0 0 1
000208 0.005586 0.990803 0.005637 AB p247_mb_212 None 1 0 0 0 1

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: SUNSHINE FIRE PROTECTION DISTRICT BALLOT QUESTION 5A

Number of precincts: 113
Total number of votes cast:  240
Average number of votes/precinct: 2.12389380531
Median number of votes/precinct: 1
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 43
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 1
Ratio of max/min: 43.0
margin =  41.25 percent, 99.0 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    1.34428544109 precincts.
    expected workload =  6.37168141593 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 116.53125 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  1 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  2.12389380531 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  1.03125
    bmin = 113
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  1.0

SAFE says:
    bmin = 113
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 1
    Confidence level achieved =  1.0
    expected workload =  2.12389380531

Negexp says:
    w = 71.413404524
    largest probability =  0.214041385721
    smallest probability =  0.00558553192388
    expected number of precincts audited =  1.31046994473
    expected workload =  11.6986232989 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  1
    largest total probability =  0.179166666667
    smallest total probability =  0.00416666666667
    expected number of precincts audited = 1.0
    expected workload =  9.575 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.0348747190541