Audit Selection Report for TOWN OF NEDERLAND BALLOT ISSUE 2A

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 100.0%

See additional statistical information below...

The audit units are reported for selection in priority order, based on the threshholds below, and the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator using the random seed value 702758241994347 combined with the Batch sequence numbers.

Select the top 1 audit units.

Batch Seq Threshhold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots NO Over Under YES
Totals 145 0 57 729
000113 0.069621 0.024408 2.852379 ED p138_ed_117 None 76 14 0 5 57
000149 0.005681 0.003267 1.738854 AB p174_mb_152 None 6 2 0 0 4
000172 0.003791 0.004576 0.828372 AB p199_mb_177 None 4 0 0 0 4
000013 0.004736 0.006129 0.772719 AB p098_mb_015 None 5 0 0 0 5
000111 0.011330 0.061536 0.184113 AB p148_mb_113 None 12 5 0 1 6
000185 0.131101 0.811369 0.161580 ED p240_ed_190 None 148 22 0 19 107
000217 0.008509 0.057791 0.147242 AB p227_mb_222 None 9 2 0 0 7
000101 0.006625 0.047743 0.138756 EV p149_ev_104 None 7 1 0 1 5
000011 0.005681 0.043257 0.131329 AB p096_mb_013 None 6 1 0 0 5
000061 0.002844 0.025929 0.109705 EV p016_mb_053 None 3 0 0 0 3
000161 0.004736 0.044207 0.107139 AB p224_mb_165 None 5 1 0 1 3
000058 0.000949 0.009047 0.104899 AB p073_mb_061 None 1 0 0 1 0
000346 0.014142 0.138858 0.101844 ED j272_ed_015 None 15 3 0 0 12
000284 0.002844 0.031714 0.089691 AB p313_mb_290 None 3 0 0 0 3
000270 0.003791 0.046951 0.080741 AB p286_mb_276 None 4 0 0 1 3
000158 0.001897 0.027326 0.069429 AB p200_mb_162 None 2 0 0 0 2
000077 0.000949 0.017194 0.055199 AB p109_mb_080 None 1 0 0 0 1
000062 0.001897 0.035140 0.053991 EV p099_ev_065 None 2 0 0 0 2
000177 0.001897 0.035472 0.053485 AB p215_mb_182 None 2 0 0 0 2
000162 0.002844 0.053419 0.053249 AB p225_mb_166 None 3 0 0 0 3
000298 0.002844 0.053505 0.053163 AB p330_mb_304 None 3 0 0 0 3
000141 0.007567 0.210194 0.036002 AB p188_mb_145 None 8 0 0 1 7
000317 0.000949 0.027060 0.035073 AB p365_mb_323 None 1 1 0 0 0
000316 0.005681 0.165528 0.034320 AB p353_mb_322 None 6 0 0 0 6
000297 0.003791 0.117556 0.032247 AB p329_mb_303 None 4 0 0 0 4
000001 0.000949 0.029464 0.032211 AB p058_mb_002 None 1 0 0 0 1
000290 0.006625 0.208914 0.031710 AB p323_mb_296 None 7 0 0 0 7
000005 0.003791 0.120455 0.031471 AB p088_mb_006 None 4 0 0 0 4
000267 0.003791 0.122233 0.031013 AB p283_mb_273 None 4 0 0 0 4
000212 0.006625 0.219129 0.030231 AB p258_mb_216 None 7 0 0 1 6
000260 0.005681 0.198535 0.028614 AB p304_mb_266 None 6 0 0 1 5
000268 0.006625 0.234266 0.028278 AB p284_mb_274 None 7 2 0 0 5
000315 0.004736 0.169221 0.027989 AB p354_mb_321 None 5 3 0 0 2
000176 0.001897 0.068294 0.027780 AB p205_mb_181 None 2 2 0 0 0
000303 0.012268 0.465219 0.026370 AB p359_mb_309 None 13 3 0 2 8
000239 0.002844 0.111660 0.025475 AB p299_mb_244 None 3 0 0 0 3
000155 0.010390 0.436894 0.023782 AB p177_mb_159 None 11 0 0 0 11
000065 0.002844 0.127484 0.022313 EV p067_ev_068 None 3 1 0 0 2
000285 0.002844 0.137082 0.020750 AB p314_mb_291 None 3 2 0 0 1
000105 0.002844 0.138734 0.020503 AB p169_mb_108 None 3 1 0 0 2
000335 0.007567 0.370993 0.020398 EV j260_ev_101 None 8 1 0 0 7
000312 0.003791 0.188398 0.020122 AB p355_mb_318 None 4 0 0 0 4
000292 0.003791 0.188559 0.020104 AB p325_mb_298 None 4 2 0 0 2
000347 0.001897 0.094414 0.020095 ED j271_ed_016 None 2 0 0 0 2
000159 0.010390 0.535253 0.019412 AB p222_mb_163 None 11 5 0 1 5
000253 0.001897 0.098767 0.019209 AB p308_mb_259 None 2 1 0 0 1
000009 0.006625 0.350912 0.018878 AB p094_mb_011 None 7 2 0 0 5
000154 0.003791 0.202043 0.018763 AB p136_mb_158 None 4 0 0 0 4
000044 0.002844 0.168918 0.016840 AB p086_mb_047 None 3 1 0 1 1
000082 0.002844 0.172216 0.016517 AB p125_mb_084 None 3 0 0 0 3
000035 0.000949 0.057732 0.016439 AB p046_mb_037 None 1 0 0 0 1
000010 0.004736 0.291832 0.016230 AB p095_mb_012 None 5 0 0 1 4
000295 0.016012 0.999703 0.016017 AB p249_mb_301 None 17 3 0 0 14
000089 0.003791 0.239103 0.015855 AB p040_mb_092 None 4 0 0 0 4
000327 0.001897 0.124721 0.015212 AB p362_mb_333 None 2 0 0 0 2
000325 0.002844 0.192354 0.014788 AB p346_mb_331 None 3 2 0 0 1
000300 0.009450 0.654246 0.014444 AB p331_mb_306 None 10 2 0 1 7
000272 0.004736 0.330290 0.014340 AB p293_mb_278 None 5 0 0 0 5
000128 0.006625 0.477745 0.013866 AB p151_mb_129 None 7 1 0 0 6
000157 0.004736 0.344686 0.013741 AB p139_mb_161 None 5 0 0 0 5
000060 0.011330 0.854543 0.013258 AB p025_mb_063 None 12 2 0 0 10
000310 0.007567 0.605093 0.012506 AB p367_mb_316 None 8 0 0 2 6
000033 0.006625 0.556787 0.011898 AB p044_mb_035 None 7 5 0 0 2
000228 0.009450 0.803459 0.011762 AB p267_mb_233 None 10 1 0 1 8
000064 0.006625 0.582289 0.011377 EV p112_ev_067 None 7 2 0 0 5
000103 0.001897 0.170237 0.011145 AB p162_mb_103 None 2 0 0 0 2
000098 0.007567 0.709513 0.010666 AB p161_mb_101 None 8 0 0 1 7
000037 0.000949 0.089783 0.010571 AB p048_mb_039 None 1 0 0 0 1
000054 0.001897 0.183764 0.010324 AB p070_mb_057 None 2 1 0 0 1
000145 0.006625 0.642488 0.010311 AB p189_mb_146 None 7 0 0 0 7
000004 0.002844 0.279562 0.010175 AB p065_mb_005 None 3 0 0 0 3
000063 0.008509 0.886027 0.009604 EV p111_ev_066 None 9 0 0 1 8
000235 0.003791 0.401724 0.009436 AB p271_mb_240 None 4 0 0 0 4
000322 0.001897 0.204882 0.009260 AB p343_mb_328 None 2 1 0 1 0
000046 0.007567 0.825597 0.009166 AB p035_mb_049 None 8 0 0 1 7
000032 0.001897 0.215026 0.008823 AB p043_mb_034 None 2 0 0 0 2
000124 0.004736 0.549879 0.008613 AB p110_mb_128 None 5 0 0 1 4
000329 0.007567 0.912836 0.008290 AB p371_mb_335 None 8 1 0 1 6
000213 0.002844 0.350121 0.008124 AB p256_mb_218 None 3 0 0 0 3
000220 0.005681 0.711300 0.007987 AB p269_mb_225 None 6 3 0 0 3
000311 0.002844 0.356518 0.007979 AB p368_mb_317 None 3 0 0 0 3
000100 0.002844 0.359264 0.007918 EV p129_ev_099 None 3 1 0 0 2
000226 0.007567 0.972028 0.007785 AB p262_mb_231 None 8 1 0 0 7
000050 0.001897 0.247434 0.007668 AB p038_mb_052 None 2 1 0 0 1
000045 0.004736 0.624209 0.007588 AB p015_mb_048 None 5 2 0 0 3
000218 0.006625 0.878199 0.007543 AB p261_mb_223 None 7 1 0 0 6
000030 0.001897 0.257027 0.007381 EV p041_ev_032 None 2 0 0 1 1
000150 0.001897 0.265712 0.007140 AB p172_mb_154 None 2 0 0 0 2
000055 0.002844 0.418615 0.006795 AB p033_mb_058 None 3 1 0 0 2
000087 0.004736 0.707846 0.006691 EV p150_ev_090 None 5 0 0 0 5
000073 0.002844 0.436279 0.006520 EV p081_ev_076 None 3 2 0 0 1
000051 0.001897 0.292429 0.006488 AB p060_mb_054 None 2 0 0 0 2
000102 0.004736 0.737253 0.006424 EV p164_ev_105 None 5 0 0 0 5
000250 0.003791 0.591425 0.006410 AB p461_mb_255 None 4 0 0 1 3
000079 0.003791 0.609047 0.006224 AB p123_mb_082 None 4 1 0 0 3
000042 0.002844 0.462045 0.006156 AB p082_mb_043 None 3 0 0 0 3
000205 0.002844 0.464447 0.006124 EV p190_ev_203 None 3 0 0 0 3
000056 0.002844 0.464511 0.006124 AB p071_mb_059 None 3 0 0 0 3
000227 0.000949 0.155452 0.006105 AB p266_mb_232 None 1 0 0 0 1
000067 0.004736 0.778241 0.006086 EV p101_ev_070 None 5 0 0 0 5
000265 0.002844 0.471476 0.006033 AB p281_mb_271 None 3 1 0 0 2
000131 0.002844 0.473318 0.006010 AB p156_mb_134 None 3 1 0 0 2
000321 0.004736 0.827524 0.005723 AB p342_mb_327 None 5 1 0 1 3
000248 0.004736 0.842521 0.005622 AB p290_mb_253 None 5 1 0 0 4
000246 0.000949 0.169589 0.005596 AB p295_mb_250 None 1 0 0 0 1
000200 0.003791 0.684977 0.005534 AB p221_mb_204 None 4 2 0 0 2
000282 0.002844 0.516208 0.005510 AB p464_mb_287 None 3 0 0 0 3
000078 0.004736 0.869479 0.005447 AB p075_mb_081 None 5 0 0 0 5
000025 0.004736 0.879093 0.005388 AB p080_mb_024 None 5 2 0 0 3
000163 0.004736 0.904305 0.005238 AB p226_mb_167 None 5 1 0 0 4
000261 0.001897 0.369921 0.005129 AB p305_mb_267 None 2 0 0 0 2
000307 0.003791 0.756144 0.005013 EV p255_ev_313 None 4 0 0 0 4
000174 0.003791 0.780197 0.004859 AB p229_mb_179 None 4 1 0 1 2
000243 0.003791 0.795192 0.004767 AB p252_mb_248 None 4 0 0 0 4
000215 0.000949 0.199952 0.004746 AB p251_mb_219 None 1 0 0 0 1
000093 0.000949 0.201320 0.004714 AB p064_mb_096 None 1 0 0 0 1
000242 0.003791 0.806037 0.004703 AB p254_mb_247 None 4 0 0 0 4
000283 0.003791 0.825360 0.004593 AB p311_mb_289 None 4 0 0 0 4
000251 0.002844 0.636421 0.004470 AB p462_mb_256 None 3 1 0 0 2
000278 0.000949 0.213471 0.004446 AB p336_mb_284 None 1 0 0 0 1
000259 0.003791 0.860967 0.004403 AB p303_mb_265 None 4 0 0 0 4
000323 0.003791 0.862444 0.004395 AB p344_mb_329 None 4 2 0 0 2
000237 0.001897 0.433775 0.004374 EV p243_ev_220 None 2 0 0 0 2
000208 0.000949 0.224622 0.004225 AB p247_mb_212 None 1 0 0 0 1
000031 0.001897 0.455040 0.004169 AB p055_mb_029 None 2 1 0 0 1
000028 0.001897 0.459467 0.004129 EV p009_ev_030 None 2 1 0 0 1
000263 0.000949 0.230019 0.004126 AB p306_mb_268 None 1 0 0 0 1
000264 0.003791 0.926281 0.004093 AB p276_mb_270 None 4 0 0 0 4
000222 0.000949 0.235613 0.004028 AB p264_mb_227 None 1 0 0 0 1
000156 0.001897 0.482789 0.003930 AB p144_mb_160 None 2 0 0 0 2
000049 0.003791 0.984988 0.003849 EV p084_mb_045 None 4 1 0 0 3
000036 0.000949 0.249835 0.003799 AB p047_mb_038 None 1 0 0 0 1
000180 0.000949 0.256286 0.003703 AB p214_mb_183 None 1 0 0 0 1
000066 0.001897 0.525036 0.003614 EV p100_ev_069 None 2 0 0 0 2
000147 0.002844 0.799431 0.003558 AB p206_mb_150 None 3 2 0 0 1
000241 0.001897 0.535908 0.003540 AB p300_mb_245 None 2 0 0 0 2
000027 0.002844 0.811460 0.003505 EV p053_ev_027 None 3 1 0 0 2
000293 0.001897 0.545312 0.003479 AB p326_mb_299 None 2 0 0 0 2
000336 0.001897 0.563096 0.003369 EV j262_ev_102 None 2 1 0 0 1
000330 0.001897 0.570288 0.003327 EV p370_ev_314 None 2 0 0 0 2
000221 0.002844 0.858255 0.003314 AB p270_mb_226 None 3 0 0 0 3
000289 0.001897 0.583095 0.003254 AB p315_mb_292 None 2 1 0 0 1
000224 0.002844 0.875592 0.003249 AB p263_mb_229 None 3 0 0 0 3
000038 0.001897 0.591411 0.003208 AB p049_mb_040 None 2 1 0 0 1
000299 0.002844 0.909126 0.003129 AB p332_mb_305 None 3 0 0 0 3
000014 0.001897 0.616283 0.003079 EV p034_ev_003 None 2 0 0 0 2
000279 0.002844 0.953039 0.002985 AB p337_mb_285 None 3 0 0 1 2
000075 0.002844 0.965698 0.002946 AB p107_ev_078 None 3 0 0 0 3
000140 0.001897 0.648979 0.002923 AB p167_mb_139 None 2 0 0 0 2
000175 0.002844 0.983977 0.002891 AB p230_mb_180 None 3 0 0 0 3
000249 0.000949 0.328980 0.002885 AB p249_mb_254 None 1 0 0 0 1
000195 0.001897 0.673990 0.002815 AB p182_mb_187 None 2 1 0 0 1
000320 0.001897 0.680569 0.002788 AB p341_mb_326 None 2 0 0 0 2
000301 0.000949 0.342725 0.002769 AB p333_mb_307 None 1 0 0 0 1
000109 0.000949 0.369190 0.002571 AB p119_mb_112 None 1 0 0 0 1
000219 0.001897 0.738920 0.002568 AB p265_mb_224 None 2 0 0 0 2
000271 0.001897 0.753401 0.002518 AB p287_mb_277 None 2 0 0 0 2
000096 0.001897 0.756051 0.002509 AB p128_mb_098 None 2 1 0 0 1
000081 0.001897 0.758403 0.002502 EV p121_ev_077 None 2 0 0 0 2
000255 0.001897 0.762607 0.002488 AB p310_mb_261 None 2 0 0 0 2
000039 0.001897 0.767668 0.002471 EV p042_ev_033 None 2 0 0 0 2
000097 0.001897 0.773564 0.002453 AB p130_mb_100 None 2 0 0 0 2
000047 0.001897 0.781153 0.002429 AB p036_mb_050 None 2 0 0 0 2
000276 0.000949 0.394008 0.002409 AB p320_mb_280 None 1 1 0 0 0
000091 0.000949 0.399583 0.002375 EV p087_ev_091 None 1 0 0 0 1
000231 0.001897 0.799032 0.002374 AB p273_mb_236 None 2 0 0 0 2
000206 0.001897 0.800274 0.002371 AB p245_ev_210 None 2 0 0 0 2
000334 0.001897 0.811934 0.002337 EV j259_ev_100 None 2 0 0 1 1
000294 0.001897 0.815237 0.002327 AB p327_mb_300 None 2 0 0 1 1
000318 0.001897 0.847468 0.002239 AB p364_mb_324 None 2 0 0 0 2
000090 0.001897 0.864922 0.002194 AB p115_mb_093 None 2 2 0 0 0
000115 0.001897 0.874239 0.002170 ED p137_ed_119 None 2 0 0 0 2
000007 0.000949 0.442883 0.002143 AB p090_mb_008 None 1 0 0 0 1
000068 0.001897 0.890274 0.002131 EV p102_ev_071 None 2 1 0 0 1
000006 0.000949 0.456282 0.002080 AB p089_mb_007 None 1 0 0 0 1
000107 0.000949 0.461162 0.002058 AB p168_mb_110 None 1 0 0 1 0
000094 0.000949 0.471245 0.002014 AB p127_mb_097 None 1 0 0 0 1
000214 0.001897 0.960275 0.001976 EV p257_ev_217 None 2 0 0 0 2
000034 0.000949 0.498673 0.001903 AB p045_mb_036 None 1 1 0 0 0
000021 0.000949 0.514263 0.001845 AB p079_mb_023 None 1 0 0 0 1
000134 0.000949 0.516951 0.001836 AB p160_mb_138 None 1 0 0 0 1
000059 0.000949 0.516975 0.001836 AB p074_mb_062 None 1 0 0 0 1
000024 0.000949 0.531600 0.001785 EV p052_ev_026 None 1 0 0 0 1
000121 0.000949 0.532542 0.001782 AB p145_mb_125 None 1 0 0 0 1
000232 0.000949 0.559018 0.001698 AB p274_mb_237 None 1 0 0 0 1
000123 0.000949 0.567461 0.001672 AB p147_mb_126 None 1 1 0 0 0
000280 0.000949 0.582000 0.001631 AB p338_mb_286 None 1 0 0 0 1
000236 0.000949 0.593827 0.001598 AB p279_mb_241 None 1 0 0 0 1
000029 0.000949 0.599575 0.001583 EV p039_ev_031 None 1 0 0 0 1
000230 0.000949 0.601019 0.001579 AB p272_mb_235 None 1 0 0 0 1
000129 0.000949 0.617854 0.001536 AB p157_mb_133 None 1 0 0 1 0
000026 0.000949 0.628036 0.001511 AB p054_ev_028 None 1 0 0 0 1
000210 0.000949 0.635824 0.001493 AB p248_mb_215 None 1 0 0 0 1
000084 0.000949 0.687722 0.001380 AB p118_mb_087 None 1 0 0 0 1
000070 0.000949 0.702959 0.001350 EV p104_ev_073 None 1 0 0 0 1
000291 0.000949 0.743575 0.001276 AB p324_mb_297 None 1 1 0 0 0
000053 0.000949 0.754775 0.001257 AB p063_mb_056 None 1 0 0 0 1
000074 0.000949 0.761919 0.001246 AB p059_mb_064 None 1 0 0 0 1
000306 0.000949 0.769543 0.001233 EV p296_ev_288 None 1 0 0 0 1
000328 0.000949 0.772728 0.001228 AB p363_mb_334 None 1 0 0 0 1
000153 0.000949 0.773054 0.001228 AB p210_mb_156 None 1 0 0 0 1
000197 0.000949 0.791842 0.001199 EV p236_ev_202 None 1 0 0 0 1
000256 0.000949 0.808503 0.001174 AB p272_mb_262 None 1 0 0 0 1
000234 0.000949 0.842665 0.001126 AB p278_mb_239 None 1 0 0 0 1
000324 0.000949 0.844861 0.001123 AB p345_mb_330 None 1 0 0 0 1
000015 0.000949 0.855960 0.001109 AB p057_mb_016 None 1 0 0 0 1
000069 0.000949 0.864196 0.001098 EV p103_ev_072 None 1 0 0 0 1
000266 0.000949 0.869028 0.001092 AB p282_mb_272 None 1 1 0 0 0
000160 0.000949 0.872822 0.001087 AB p223_mb_164 None 1 0 0 0 1
000008 0.000949 0.880630 0.001078 AB p092_mb_010 None 1 0 0 0 1
000223 0.000949 0.893175 0.001063 AB p242_mb_228 None 1 1 0 0 0
000108 0.000949 0.898908 0.001056 AB p141_mb_111 None 1 0 0 1 0
000233 0.000949 0.900779 0.001054 AB p275_mb_238 None 1 0 0 0 1
000314 0.000949 0.929544 0.001021 AB p366_mb_320 None 1 0 0 0 1
000522 0.000949 0.968336 0.000980 EV j261_ev_103 None 1 0 0 0 1

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: TOWN OF NEDERLAND BALLOT ISSUE 2A

Number of precincts: 215
Total number of votes cast:  931
Average number of votes/precinct: 4.33023255814
Median number of votes/precinct: 2
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 148
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 1
Ratio of max/min: 148.0
margin =  62.7282491944 percent, 584.0 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    0.884000034385 precincts.
    expected workload =  8.66046511628 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 337.16433942 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  1 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  4.33023255814 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  1.56820622986
    bmin = 215
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  1.0

SAFE says:
    bmin = 215
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 1
    Confidence level achieved =  1.0
    expected workload =  4.33023255814

Negexp says:
    w = 421.26695194
    largest probability =  0.131101072523
    smallest probability =  0.000949066037374
    expected number of precincts audited =  0.87023776213
    expected workload =  28.4651093145 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  1
    largest total probability =  0.158968850698
    smallest total probability =  0.00107411385607
    expected number of precincts audited = 1.0
    expected workload =  34.0139634801 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.0278677781752