## Audit Report for ESTES VALLEY RECREATION AND PARK DIST BALLOT ISSUE 4C

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 2.0%

- Overall margin of victory: 5.000%
- Margin of victory in this county: 7.143%
- Number of audit units in this county: 48
- Number of audit units to audit (NEGEXP, 75% confidence): 0.2

See additional statistical information below...

Batch Seq | Threshhold | Random | Priority | Type | Batches | Ballots | Contest Ballots | NO | Over | Under | YES |

Totals | 35 | 0 | 8 | 41 | |||||||

000005 | 0.123684 | AB | p088_mb_006 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000008 | 0.123684 | AB | p092_mb_010 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000009 | 0.123684 | AB | p094_mb_011 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000011 | 0.123684 | AB | p096_mb_013 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000012 | 0.123684 | AB | p097_mb_014 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000027 | 0.123684 | EV | p053_ev_027 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
||

000018 | 0.123684 | AB | p076_mb_020 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000033 | 0.123684 | AB | p044_mb_035 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000035 | 0.123684 | AB | p046_mb_037 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000054 | 0.123684 | AB | p070_mb_057 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000029 | 0.327050 | EV | p039_ev_031 | None | 3 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
||

000064 | 0.123684 | EV | p112_ev_067 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000066 | 0.232070 | EV | p100_ev_069 | None | 2 | 2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000055 | 0.327050 | AB | p033_mb_058 | None | 3 | 0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
||

000075 | 0.123684 | AB | p107_ev_078 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000079 | 0.232070 | AB | p123_mb_082 | None | 2 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000080 | 0.123684 | AB | p124_mb_083 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000099 | 0.123684 | AB | p132_mb_102 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000105 | 0.232070 | AB | p169_mb_108 | None | 2 | 2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000112 | 0.123684 | AB | p143_mb_115 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000123 | 0.123684 | AB | p147_mb_126 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000128 | 0.232070 | AB | p151_mb_129 | None | 2 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
||

000140 | 0.123684 | AB | p167_mb_139 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000150 | 0.123684 | AB | p172_mb_154 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000151 | 0.232070 | AB | p171_mb_155 | None | 2 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000155 | 0.123684 | AB | p177_mb_159 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000160 | 0.123684 | AB | p223_mb_164 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000174 | 0.232070 | AB | p229_mb_179 | None | 2 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
||

000069 | 0.123684 | EV | p103_ev_072 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
||

000181 | 0.123684 | AB | p211_mb_186 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000208 | 0.123684 | AB | p247_mb_212 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000213 | 0.123684 | AB | p256_mb_218 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000221 | 0.123684 | AB | p270_mb_226 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000222 | 0.123684 | AB | p264_mb_227 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000223 | 0.123684 | AB | p242_mb_228 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000233 | 0.327050 | AB | p275_mb_238 | None | 3 | 2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000113 | 0.907125 | ED | p138_ed_117 | None | 18 | 12 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
||

000239 | 0.123684 | AB | p299_mb_244 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000197 | 0.123684 | EV | p236_ev_202 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
||

000265 | 0.123684 | AB | p281_mb_271 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000284 | 0.123684 | AB | p313_mb_290 | None | 1 | 1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||

000285 | 0.123684 | AB | p314_mb_291 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000296 | 0.232070 | AB | p328_mb_302 | None | 2 | 0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
||

000311 | 0.123684 | AB | p368_mb_317 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000317 | 0.123684 | AB | p365_mb_323 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000281 | 0.123684 | EV | p292_ev_282 | None | 1 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
||

000262 | 0.232070 | ED | p288_ed_251 | None | 2 | 0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
||

000318 | 0.547138 | AB | p364_mb_324 | None | 6 | 3 |
0 |
0 |
3 |

### Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest

Contest: ESTES VALLEY RECREATION AND PARK DIST BALLOT ISSUE 4C Number of precincts: 48 Total number of votes cast: 84 Average number of votes/precinct: 1.75 Median number of votes/precinct: 1 Maximum number of votes/precinct: 18 Minimum number of votes/precinct: 1 Ratio of max/min: 18.0 margin = 5.0 percent, 4.2 votes s = 0.2 (maximum within-precinct-miscount) alpha = 0.25 (confidence is 1 - alpha: 0.75 ) Rule of Thumb says: 11.090354889 precincts. expected workload = 35.0 votes counted. APR says: b = 6.0 precincts needed to hold corruption u = 10 precincts to audit expected workload = 17.5 votes confidence level to find one of b = 0.775033345524 bmin = 1 confidence level to find one of bmin = 0.208333333333 SAFE says: bmin = 1 Number of precincts to audit = u = 36 Confidence level achieved = 0.75 expected workload = 63.0 Negexp says: w = 3.02965958587 largest probability = 0.907125356929 smallest probability = 0.123683572264 expected number of precincts audited = 8.62089441291 expected workload = 30.59657189 votes counted PPEBWR says: t = 11 largest total probability = 0.929545109498 smallest total probability = 0.123429462484 expected number of precincts audited = 8.65894940234 expected workload = 31.0894928664 votes counted. max difference from negexp = 0.0224197525687