Audit Selection Report for TOWN OF NEDERLAND BALLOT ISSUE 2A

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 100.0%

See additional statistical information below...

The audit units are reported for selection in priority order, based on the threshholds below, and the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator using the random seed value 123456789012345 combined with the Batch sequence numbers.

Select the top 1 audit units.

Batch Seq Threshhold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots NO Over Under YES
Totals 145 0 57 729
000261 0.001897 0.004683 0.405119 AB p305_mb_267 None 2 0 0 0 2
000185 0.131101 0.444207 0.295135 ED p240_ed_190 None 148 22 0 19 107
000101 0.006625 0.030935 0.214148 EV p149_ev_104 None 7 1 0 1 5
000124 0.004736 0.024438 0.193814 AB p110_mb_128 None 5 0 0 1 4
000089 0.003791 0.020239 0.187307 AB p040_mb_092 None 4 0 0 0 4
000113 0.069621 0.428152 0.162608 ED p138_ed_117 None 76 14 0 5 57
000321 0.004736 0.038282 0.123721 AB p342_mb_327 None 5 1 0 1 3
000145 0.006625 0.079973 0.082835 AB p189_mb_146 None 7 0 0 0 7
000063 0.008509 0.103210 0.082446 EV p111_ev_066 None 9 0 0 1 8
000049 0.003791 0.046210 0.082035 EV p084_mb_045 None 4 1 0 0 3
000131 0.002844 0.035825 0.079399 AB p156_mb_134 None 3 1 0 0 2
000098 0.007567 0.131432 0.057576 AB p161_mb_101 None 8 0 0 1 7
000346 0.014142 0.284493 0.049709 ED j272_ed_015 None 15 3 0 0 12
000109 0.000949 0.019402 0.048915 AB p119_mb_112 None 1 0 0 0 1
000322 0.001897 0.042794 0.044334 AB p343_mb_328 None 2 1 0 1 0
000042 0.002844 0.064966 0.043785 AB p082_mb_043 None 3 0 0 0 3
000096 0.001897 0.043354 0.043762 AB p128_mb_098 None 2 1 0 0 1
000289 0.001897 0.044055 0.043065 AB p315_mb_292 None 2 1 0 0 1
000242 0.003791 0.088782 0.042699 AB p254_mb_247 None 4 0 0 0 4
000299 0.002844 0.076650 0.037110 AB p332_mb_305 None 3 0 0 0 3
000329 0.007567 0.206824 0.036588 AB p371_mb_335 None 8 1 0 1 6
000221 0.002844 0.079830 0.035632 AB p270_mb_226 None 3 0 0 0 3
000217 0.008509 0.254976 0.033373 AB p227_mb_222 None 9 2 0 0 7
000195 0.001897 0.060853 0.031177 AB p182_mb_187 None 2 1 0 0 1
000284 0.002844 0.093249 0.030504 AB p313_mb_290 None 3 0 0 0 3
000161 0.004736 0.167594 0.028261 AB p224_mb_165 None 5 1 0 1 3
000159 0.010390 0.383288 0.027108 AB p222_mb_163 None 11 5 0 1 5
000046 0.007567 0.302225 0.025039 AB p035_mb_049 None 8 0 0 1 7
000297 0.003791 0.152508 0.024857 AB p329_mb_303 None 4 0 0 0 4
000149 0.005681 0.232937 0.024388 AB p174_mb_152 None 6 2 0 0 4
000303 0.012268 0.525760 0.023334 AB p359_mb_309 None 13 3 0 2 8
000014 0.001897 0.086373 0.021966 EV p034_ev_003 None 2 0 0 0 2
000220 0.005681 0.260432 0.021813 AB p269_mb_225 None 6 3 0 0 3
000111 0.011330 0.529554 0.021394 AB p148_mb_113 None 12 5 0 1 6
000013 0.004736 0.241425 0.019618 AB p098_mb_015 None 5 0 0 0 5
000298 0.002844 0.155248 0.018322 AB p330_mb_304 None 3 0 0 0 3
000295 0.016012 0.897942 0.017832 AB p249_mb_301 None 17 3 0 0 14
000272 0.004736 0.269910 0.017548 AB p293_mb_278 None 5 0 0 0 5
000054 0.001897 0.109863 0.017269 AB p070_mb_057 None 2 1 0 0 1
000214 0.001897 0.110189 0.017218 EV p257_ev_217 None 2 0 0 0 2
000259 0.003791 0.220378 0.017202 AB p303_mb_265 None 4 0 0 0 4
000021 0.000949 0.056014 0.016943 AB p079_mb_023 None 1 0 0 0 1
000060 0.011330 0.673511 0.016822 AB p025_mb_063 None 12 2 0 0 10
000066 0.001897 0.113187 0.016762 EV p100_ev_069 None 2 0 0 0 2
000011 0.005681 0.342827 0.016571 AB p096_mb_013 None 6 1 0 0 5
000163 0.004736 0.289937 0.016336 AB p226_mb_167 None 5 1 0 0 4
000062 0.001897 0.122773 0.015453 EV p099_ev_065 None 2 0 0 0 2
000155 0.010390 0.690245 0.015053 AB p177_mb_159 None 11 0 0 0 11
000097 0.001897 0.128692 0.014742 AB p130_mb_100 None 2 0 0 0 2
000087 0.004736 0.333323 0.014209 EV p150_ev_090 None 5 0 0 0 5
000314 0.000949 0.068641 0.013827 AB p366_mb_320 None 1 0 0 0 1
000084 0.000949 0.069433 0.013669 AB p118_mb_087 None 1 0 0 0 1
000228 0.009450 0.693737 0.013622 AB p267_mb_233 None 10 1 0 1 8
000249 0.000949 0.070026 0.013553 AB p249_mb_254 None 1 0 0 0 1
000316 0.005681 0.428897 0.013245 AB p353_mb_322 None 6 0 0 0 6
000323 0.003791 0.287087 0.013205 AB p344_mb_329 None 4 2 0 0 2
000154 0.003791 0.296590 0.012781 AB p136_mb_158 None 4 0 0 0 4
000044 0.002844 0.223410 0.012732 AB p086_mb_047 None 3 1 0 1 1
000300 0.009450 0.755475 0.012509 AB p331_mb_306 None 10 2 0 1 7
000243 0.003791 0.307613 0.012323 AB p252_mb_248 None 4 0 0 0 4
000248 0.004736 0.394736 0.011999 AB p290_mb_253 None 5 1 0 0 4
000222 0.000949 0.084342 0.011253 AB p264_mb_227 None 1 0 0 0 1
000315 0.004736 0.421789 0.011229 AB p354_mb_321 None 5 3 0 0 2
000522 0.000949 0.088196 0.010761 EV j261_ev_103 None 1 0 0 0 1
000213 0.002844 0.265241 0.010724 AB p256_mb_218 None 3 0 0 0 3
000033 0.006625 0.650041 0.010191 AB p044_mb_035 None 7 5 0 0 2
000141 0.007567 0.743640 0.010176 AB p188_mb_145 None 8 0 0 1 7
000285 0.002844 0.281296 0.010112 AB p314_mb_291 None 3 2 0 0 1
000038 0.001897 0.187878 0.010098 AB p049_mb_040 None 2 1 0 0 1
000335 0.007567 0.772549 0.009795 EV j260_ev_101 None 8 1 0 0 7
000067 0.004736 0.484519 0.009775 EV p101_ev_070 None 5 0 0 0 5
000310 0.007567 0.800986 0.009448 AB p367_mb_316 None 8 0 0 2 6
000162 0.002844 0.309500 0.009191 AB p225_mb_166 None 3 0 0 0 3
000174 0.003791 0.414090 0.009155 AB p229_mb_179 None 4 1 0 1 2
000134 0.000949 0.105244 0.009018 AB p160_mb_138 None 1 0 0 0 1
000268 0.006625 0.735902 0.009002 AB p284_mb_274 None 7 2 0 0 5
000290 0.006625 0.745762 0.008883 AB p323_mb_296 None 7 0 0 0 7
000206 0.001897 0.213727 0.008877 AB p245_ev_210 None 2 0 0 0 2
000212 0.006625 0.754360 0.008782 AB p258_mb_216 None 7 0 0 1 6
000172 0.003791 0.432821 0.008759 AB p199_mb_177 None 4 0 0 0 4
000311 0.002844 0.325095 0.008750 AB p368_mb_317 None 3 0 0 0 3
000320 0.001897 0.218884 0.008668 AB p341_mb_326 None 2 0 0 0 2
000005 0.003791 0.447939 0.008463 AB p088_mb_006 None 4 0 0 0 4
000260 0.005681 0.697328 0.008147 AB p304_mb_266 None 6 0 0 1 5
000009 0.006625 0.832676 0.007956 AB p094_mb_011 None 7 2 0 0 5
000226 0.007567 0.964006 0.007850 AB p262_mb_231 None 8 1 0 0 7
000128 0.006625 0.856648 0.007733 AB p151_mb_129 None 7 1 0 0 6
000263 0.000949 0.127026 0.007471 AB p306_mb_268 None 1 0 0 0 1
000267 0.003791 0.508336 0.007457 AB p283_mb_273 None 4 0 0 0 4
000082 0.002844 0.384083 0.007406 AB p125_mb_084 None 3 0 0 0 3
000250 0.003791 0.515669 0.007351 AB p461_mb_255 None 4 0 0 1 3
000330 0.001897 0.258263 0.007346 EV p370_ev_314 None 2 0 0 0 2
000218 0.006625 0.922602 0.007180 AB p261_mb_223 None 7 1 0 0 6
000336 0.001897 0.264425 0.007175 EV j262_ev_102 None 2 1 0 0 1
000102 0.004736 0.660949 0.007166 EV p164_ev_105 None 5 0 0 0 5
000064 0.006625 0.925999 0.007154 EV p112_ev_067 None 7 2 0 0 5
000282 0.002844 0.407900 0.006974 AB p464_mb_287 None 3 0 0 0 3
000266 0.000949 0.137003 0.006927 AB p282_mb_272 None 1 1 0 0 0
000030 0.001897 0.275994 0.006874 EV p041_ev_032 None 2 0 0 1 1
000079 0.003791 0.554235 0.006840 AB p123_mb_082 None 4 1 0 0 3
000025 0.004736 0.703005 0.006737 AB p080_mb_024 None 5 2 0 0 3
000078 0.004736 0.722395 0.006556 AB p075_mb_081 None 5 0 0 0 5
000293 0.001897 0.302475 0.006272 AB p326_mb_299 None 2 0 0 0 2
000108 0.000949 0.153714 0.006174 AB p141_mb_111 None 1 0 0 1 0
000205 0.002844 0.471755 0.006030 EV p190_ev_203 None 3 0 0 0 3
000307 0.003791 0.652751 0.005808 EV p255_ev_313 None 4 0 0 0 4
000010 0.004736 0.818718 0.005785 AB p095_mb_012 None 5 0 0 1 4
000055 0.002844 0.503519 0.005649 AB p033_mb_058 None 3 1 0 0 2
000306 0.000949 0.172179 0.005512 EV p296_ev_288 None 1 0 0 0 1
000075 0.002844 0.530890 0.005358 AB p107_ev_078 None 3 0 0 0 3
000312 0.003791 0.712813 0.005318 AB p355_mb_318 None 4 0 0 0 4
000045 0.004736 0.893246 0.005302 AB p015_mb_048 None 5 2 0 0 3
000157 0.004736 0.903133 0.005244 AB p139_mb_161 None 5 0 0 0 5
000006 0.000949 0.189911 0.004997 AB p089_mb_007 None 1 0 0 0 1
000279 0.002844 0.578051 0.004921 AB p337_mb_285 None 3 0 0 1 2
000270 0.003791 0.772236 0.004909 AB p286_mb_276 None 4 0 0 1 3
000027 0.002844 0.585003 0.004862 EV p053_ev_027 None 3 1 0 0 2
000059 0.000949 0.196561 0.004828 AB p074_mb_062 None 1 0 0 0 1
000065 0.002844 0.594813 0.004782 EV p067_ev_068 None 3 1 0 0 2
000200 0.003791 0.797023 0.004756 AB p221_mb_204 None 4 2 0 0 2
000283 0.003791 0.802735 0.004722 AB p311_mb_289 None 4 0 0 0 4
000235 0.003791 0.814096 0.004657 AB p271_mb_240 None 4 0 0 0 4
000265 0.002844 0.618629 0.004598 AB p281_mb_271 None 3 1 0 0 2
000105 0.002844 0.634666 0.004482 AB p169_mb_108 None 3 1 0 0 2
000317 0.000949 0.213428 0.004447 AB p365_mb_323 None 1 1 0 0 0
000147 0.002844 0.645512 0.004407 AB p206_mb_150 None 3 2 0 0 1
000237 0.001897 0.433631 0.004375 EV p243_ev_220 None 2 0 0 0 2
000239 0.002844 0.653830 0.004351 AB p299_mb_244 None 3 0 0 0 3
000292 0.003791 0.873475 0.004340 AB p325_mb_298 None 4 2 0 0 2
000347 0.001897 0.441053 0.004302 ED j271_ed_016 None 2 0 0 0 2
000029 0.000949 0.224555 0.004226 EV p039_ev_031 None 1 0 0 0 1
000074 0.000949 0.227363 0.004174 AB p059_mb_064 None 1 0 0 0 1
000325 0.002844 0.685274 0.004151 AB p346_mb_331 None 3 2 0 0 1
000047 0.001897 0.458785 0.004135 AB p036_mb_050 None 2 0 0 0 2
000056 0.002844 0.703986 0.004041 AB p071_mb_059 None 3 0 0 0 3
000264 0.003791 0.949815 0.003991 AB p276_mb_270 None 4 0 0 0 4
000175 0.002844 0.717617 0.003964 AB p230_mb_180 None 3 0 0 0 3
000121 0.000949 0.242741 0.003910 AB p145_mb_125 None 1 0 0 0 1
000050 0.001897 0.491853 0.003857 AB p038_mb_052 None 2 1 0 0 1
000251 0.002844 0.738502 0.003852 AB p462_mb_256 None 3 1 0 0 2
000255 0.001897 0.527335 0.003598 AB p310_mb_261 None 2 0 0 0 2
000073 0.002844 0.799948 0.003556 EV p081_ev_076 None 3 2 0 0 1
000004 0.002844 0.806101 0.003529 AB p065_mb_005 None 3 0 0 0 3
000253 0.001897 0.541457 0.003504 AB p308_mb_259 None 2 1 0 0 1
000093 0.000949 0.278659 0.003406 AB p064_mb_096 None 1 0 0 0 1
000036 0.000949 0.282156 0.003364 AB p047_mb_038 None 1 0 0 0 1
000219 0.001897 0.564594 0.003360 AB p265_mb_224 None 2 0 0 0 2
000327 0.001897 0.567272 0.003344 AB p362_mb_333 None 2 0 0 0 2
000224 0.002844 0.861527 0.003302 AB p263_mb_229 None 3 0 0 0 3
000241 0.001897 0.580729 0.003267 AB p300_mb_245 None 2 0 0 0 2
000271 0.001897 0.586978 0.003232 AB p287_mb_277 None 2 0 0 0 2
000280 0.000949 0.297559 0.003190 AB p338_mb_286 None 1 0 0 0 1
000230 0.000949 0.299811 0.003166 AB p272_mb_235 None 1 0 0 0 1
000236 0.000949 0.305972 0.003102 AB p279_mb_241 None 1 0 0 0 1
000115 0.001897 0.626247 0.003030 ED p137_ed_119 None 2 0 0 0 2
000039 0.001897 0.630014 0.003011 EV p042_ev_033 None 2 0 0 0 2
000197 0.000949 0.315419 0.003009 EV p236_ev_202 None 1 0 0 0 1
000100 0.002844 0.959933 0.002963 EV p129_ev_099 None 3 1 0 0 2
000294 0.001897 0.643497 0.002948 AB p327_mb_300 None 2 0 0 1 1
000246 0.000949 0.326041 0.002911 AB p295_mb_250 None 1 0 0 0 1
000061 0.002844 0.980867 0.002900 EV p016_mb_053 None 3 0 0 0 3
000223 0.000949 0.328635 0.002888 AB p242_mb_228 None 1 1 0 0 0
000091 0.000949 0.331247 0.002865 EV p087_ev_091 None 1 0 0 0 1
000028 0.001897 0.669921 0.002832 EV p009_ev_030 None 2 1 0 0 1
000150 0.001897 0.678580 0.002796 AB p172_mb_154 None 2 0 0 0 2
000291 0.000949 0.355063 0.002673 AB p324_mb_297 None 1 1 0 0 0
000068 0.001897 0.712085 0.002664 EV p102_ev_071 None 2 1 0 0 1
000051 0.001897 0.714686 0.002655 AB p060_mb_054 None 2 0 0 0 2
000090 0.001897 0.721946 0.002628 AB p115_mb_093 None 2 2 0 0 0
000103 0.001897 0.730219 0.002598 AB p162_mb_103 None 2 0 0 0 2
000158 0.001897 0.732422 0.002590 AB p200_mb_162 None 2 0 0 0 2
000037 0.000949 0.409815 0.002316 AB p048_mb_039 None 1 0 0 0 1
000129 0.000949 0.411282 0.002308 AB p157_mb_133 None 1 0 0 1 0
000031 0.001897 0.849098 0.002234 AB p055_mb_029 None 2 1 0 0 1
000231 0.001897 0.872914 0.002173 AB p273_mb_236 None 2 0 0 0 2
000015 0.000949 0.439521 0.002159 AB p057_mb_016 None 1 0 0 0 1
000318 0.001897 0.881054 0.002153 AB p364_mb_324 None 2 0 0 0 2
000081 0.001897 0.883015 0.002149 EV p121_ev_077 None 2 0 0 0 2
000156 0.001897 0.890713 0.002130 AB p144_mb_160 None 2 0 0 0 2
000176 0.001897 0.899721 0.002109 AB p205_mb_181 None 2 2 0 0 0
000334 0.001897 0.900786 0.002106 EV j259_ev_100 None 2 0 0 1 1
000180 0.000949 0.460470 0.002061 AB p214_mb_183 None 1 0 0 0 1
000215 0.000949 0.463337 0.002048 AB p251_mb_219 None 1 0 0 0 1
000140 0.001897 0.935750 0.002027 AB p167_mb_139 None 2 0 0 0 2
000177 0.001897 0.962787 0.001971 AB p215_mb_182 None 2 0 0 0 2
000032 0.001897 0.966744 0.001962 AB p043_mb_034 None 2 0 0 0 2
000123 0.000949 0.491546 0.001931 AB p147_mb_126 None 1 1 0 0 0
000053 0.000949 0.517641 0.001833 AB p063_mb_056 None 1 0 0 0 1
000058 0.000949 0.545696 0.001739 AB p073_mb_061 None 1 0 0 1 0
000227 0.000949 0.608819 0.001559 AB p266_mb_232 None 1 0 0 0 1
000094 0.000949 0.619681 0.001532 AB p127_mb_097 None 1 0 0 0 1
000328 0.000949 0.652190 0.001455 AB p363_mb_334 None 1 0 0 0 1
000007 0.000949 0.670483 0.001415 AB p090_mb_008 None 1 0 0 0 1
000233 0.000949 0.673857 0.001408 AB p275_mb_238 None 1 0 0 0 1
000153 0.000949 0.704368 0.001347 AB p210_mb_156 None 1 0 0 0 1
000256 0.000949 0.727802 0.001304 AB p272_mb_262 None 1 0 0 0 1
000276 0.000949 0.736810 0.001288 AB p320_mb_280 None 1 1 0 0 0
000278 0.000949 0.746212 0.001272 AB p336_mb_284 None 1 0 0 0 1
000070 0.000949 0.748420 0.001268 EV p104_ev_073 None 1 0 0 0 1
000077 0.000949 0.776060 0.001223 AB p109_mb_080 None 1 0 0 0 1
000035 0.000949 0.790280 0.001201 AB p046_mb_037 None 1 0 0 0 1
000069 0.000949 0.799039 0.001188 EV p103_ev_072 None 1 0 0 0 1
000324 0.000949 0.819979 0.001157 AB p345_mb_330 None 1 0 0 0 1
000301 0.000949 0.826476 0.001148 AB p333_mb_307 None 1 0 0 0 1
000024 0.000949 0.837711 0.001133 EV p052_ev_026 None 1 0 0 0 1
000210 0.000949 0.842534 0.001126 AB p248_mb_215 None 1 0 0 0 1
000001 0.000949 0.844208 0.001124 AB p058_mb_002 None 1 0 0 0 1
000107 0.000949 0.857210 0.001107 AB p168_mb_110 None 1 0 0 1 0
000160 0.000949 0.860238 0.001103 AB p223_mb_164 None 1 0 0 0 1
000034 0.000949 0.918517 0.001033 AB p045_mb_036 None 1 1 0 0 0
000026 0.000949 0.940189 0.001009 AB p054_ev_028 None 1 0 0 0 1
000234 0.000949 0.942334 0.001007 AB p278_mb_239 None 1 0 0 0 1
000008 0.000949 0.966987 0.000981 AB p092_mb_010 None 1 0 0 0 1
000232 0.000949 0.990560 0.000958 AB p274_mb_237 None 1 0 0 0 1
000208 0.000949 0.990803 0.000958 AB p247_mb_212 None 1 0 0 0 1

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: TOWN OF NEDERLAND BALLOT ISSUE 2A

Number of precincts: 215
Total number of votes cast:  931
Average number of votes/precinct: 4.33023255814
Median number of votes/precinct: 2
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 148
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 1
Ratio of max/min: 148.0
margin =  62.7282491944 percent, 584.0 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    0.884000034385 precincts.
    expected workload =  8.66046511628 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 337.16433942 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  1 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  4.33023255814 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  1.56820622986
    bmin = 215
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  1.0

SAFE says:
    bmin = 215
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 1
    Confidence level achieved =  1.0
    expected workload =  4.33023255814

Negexp says:
    w = 421.26695194
    largest probability =  0.131101072523
    smallest probability =  0.000949066037374
    expected number of precincts audited =  0.87023776213
    expected workload =  28.4651093145 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  1
    largest total probability =  0.158968850698
    smallest total probability =  0.00107411385607
    expected number of precincts audited = 1.0
    expected workload =  34.0139634801 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.0278677781752