Audit Selection Report for SUNSHINE FIRE PROTECTION DISTRICT BALLOT QUESTION 5A

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 100.0%

See additional statistical information below...

The audit units are reported for selection in priority order, based on the threshholds below, and the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator using the random seed value 702758241994347 combined with the Batch sequence numbers.

Select the top 1 audit units.

Batch Seq Threshhold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots NO Over Under YES
Totals 65 0 11 164
000172 0.016663 0.004576 3.641204 AB p199_mb_177 None 3 2 0 0 1
000013 0.005586 0.006129 0.911264 AB p098_mb_015 None 1 0 0 0 1
000077 0.011140 0.017194 0.647907 AB p109_mb_080 None 2 0 0 0 2
000001 0.011140 0.029464 0.378084 AB p058_mb_002 None 2 0 0 0 2
000298 0.016663 0.053505 0.311431 AB p330_mb_304 None 3 0 0 0 3
000217 0.016663 0.057791 0.288337 AB p227_mb_222 None 3 0 0 1 2
000185 0.214041 0.811369 0.263803 ED p240_ed_190 None 43 18 0 3 22
000161 0.011140 0.044207 0.251992 AB p224_mb_165 None 2 2 0 0 0
000061 0.005586 0.025929 0.215419 EV p016_mb_053 None 1 0 0 0 1
000035 0.011140 0.057732 0.192958 AB p046_mb_037 None 2 0 0 0 2
000177 0.005586 0.035472 0.157462 AB p215_mb_182 None 1 0 0 1 0
000037 0.011140 0.089783 0.124075 AB p048_mb_039 None 2 2 0 0 0
000292 0.022156 0.188559 0.117500 AB p325_mb_298 None 4 2 0 0 2
000162 0.005586 0.053419 0.104562 AB p225_mb_166 None 1 0 0 1 0
000297 0.011140 0.117556 0.094763 AB p329_mb_303 None 2 0 0 0 2
000111 0.005586 0.061536 0.090769 AB p148_mb_113 None 1 0 0 0 1
000105 0.011140 0.138734 0.080297 AB p169_mb_108 None 2 0 0 0 2
000269 0.016663 0.208188 0.080039 AB p285_mb_275 None 3 0 0 0 3
000003 0.011140 0.151958 0.073309 AB p034_ev_003 None 2 2 0 0 0
000227 0.011140 0.155452 0.071661 AB p266_mb_232 None 2 0 0 0 2
000082 0.011140 0.172216 0.064685 AB p125_mb_084 None 2 2 0 0 0
000330 0.033049 0.570288 0.057951 EV p370_ev_314 None 6 1 0 0 5
000120 0.022156 0.385586 0.057460 AB p116_mb_124 None 4 2 0 0 2
000253 0.005586 0.098767 0.056553 AB p308_mb_259 None 1 0 0 0 1
000089 0.011140 0.239103 0.046590 AB p040_mb_092 None 2 1 0 0 1
000005 0.005586 0.120455 0.046370 AB p088_mb_006 None 1 0 0 0 1
000267 0.005586 0.122233 0.045696 AB p283_mb_273 None 1 0 0 0 1
000123 0.022156 0.567461 0.039043 AB p147_mb_126 None 4 0 0 0 4
000210 0.022156 0.635824 0.034846 AB p248_mb_215 None 4 0 0 0 4
000316 0.005586 0.165528 0.033744 AB p353_mb_322 None 1 0 0 0 1
000044 0.005586 0.168918 0.033067 AB p086_mb_047 None 1 0 0 0 1
000315 0.005586 0.169221 0.033007 AB p354_mb_321 None 1 0 0 0 1
000157 0.011140 0.344686 0.032319 AB p139_mb_161 None 2 0 0 0 2
000213 0.011140 0.350121 0.031817 AB p256_mb_218 None 2 0 0 0 2
000109 0.011140 0.369190 0.030174 AB p119_mb_112 None 2 1 0 0 1
000102 0.022156 0.737253 0.030052 EV p164_ev_105 None 4 2 0 0 2
000336 0.016663 0.563096 0.029592 EV j262_ev_102 None 3 1 0 0 2
000099 0.016663 0.565134 0.029485 AB p132_mb_102 None 3 0 0 0 3
000093 0.005586 0.201320 0.027745 AB p064_mb_096 None 1 0 0 0 1
000235 0.011140 0.401724 0.027730 AB p271_mb_240 None 2 2 0 0 0
000154 0.005586 0.202043 0.027645 AB p136_mb_158 None 1 1 0 0 0
000141 0.005586 0.210194 0.026573 AB p188_mb_145 None 1 0 0 0 1
000251 0.016663 0.636421 0.026183 AB p462_mb_256 None 3 1 0 1 1
000278 0.005586 0.213471 0.026165 AB p336_mb_284 None 1 0 0 0 1
000212 0.005586 0.219129 0.025490 AB p258_mb_216 None 1 0 0 1 0
000208 0.005586 0.224622 0.024866 AB p247_mb_212 None 1 0 0 0 1
000031 0.011140 0.455040 0.024481 AB p055_mb_029 None 2 0 0 0 2
000056 0.011140 0.464511 0.023982 AB p071_mb_059 None 2 0 0 0 2
000220 0.016663 0.711300 0.023426 AB p269_mb_225 None 3 0 0 0 3
000156 0.011140 0.482789 0.023074 AB p144_mb_160 None 2 0 0 0 2
000036 0.005586 0.249835 0.022357 AB p047_mb_038 None 1 0 0 0 1
000255 0.016663 0.762607 0.021850 AB p310_mb_261 None 3 0 0 0 3
000343 0.016663 0.764461 0.021797 ED j269_ed_012 None 3 2 0 0 1
000306 0.016663 0.769543 0.021653 EV p296_ev_288 None 3 0 0 0 3
000159 0.011140 0.535253 0.020812 AB p222_mb_163 None 2 1 0 0 1
000323 0.016663 0.862444 0.019321 AB p344_mb_329 None 3 0 0 0 3
000078 0.016663 0.869479 0.019165 AB p075_mb_081 None 3 2 0 0 1
000012 0.016663 0.875137 0.019041 AB p097_mb_014 None 3 0 0 0 3
000218 0.016663 0.878199 0.018974 AB p261_mb_223 None 3 0 0 0 3
000038 0.011140 0.591411 0.018836 AB p049_mb_040 None 2 1 0 0 1
000223 0.016663 0.893175 0.018656 AB p242_mb_228 None 3 2 0 0 1
000029 0.011140 0.599575 0.018580 EV p039_ev_031 None 2 1 0 0 1
000310 0.011140 0.605093 0.018410 AB p367_mb_316 None 2 0 0 0 2
000151 0.005586 0.310707 0.017977 AB p171_mb_155 None 1 1 0 0 0
000140 0.011140 0.648979 0.017165 AB p167_mb_139 None 2 1 0 0 1
000057 0.005586 0.326407 0.017112 AB p072_mb_060 None 1 0 0 0 1
000301 0.005586 0.342725 0.016297 AB p333_mb_307 None 1 0 0 0 1
000258 0.005586 0.353039 0.015821 AB p302_mb_264 None 1 0 0 0 1
000087 0.011140 0.707846 0.015738 EV p150_ev_090 None 2 0 0 0 2
000335 0.005586 0.370993 0.015056 EV j260_ev_101 None 1 0 0 0 1
000321 0.011140 0.827524 0.013462 AB p342_mb_327 None 2 0 0 1 1
000324 0.011140 0.844861 0.013185 AB p345_mb_330 None 2 0 0 0 2
000090 0.011140 0.864922 0.012880 AB p115_mb_093 None 2 0 0 0 2
000305 0.005586 0.433716 0.012878 AB p357_mb_311 None 1 0 0 0 1
000237 0.005586 0.433775 0.012877 EV p243_ev_220 None 1 1 0 0 0
000160 0.011140 0.872822 0.012763 AB p223_mb_164 None 2 0 0 0 2
000025 0.011140 0.879093 0.012672 AB p080_mb_024 None 2 0 0 0 2
000008 0.011140 0.880630 0.012650 AB p092_mb_010 None 2 0 0 0 2
000007 0.005586 0.442883 0.012612 AB p090_mb_008 None 1 0 0 0 1
000205 0.005586 0.464447 0.012026 EV p190_ev_203 None 1 1 0 0 0
000131 0.005586 0.473318 0.011801 AB p156_mb_134 None 1 1 0 0 0
000279 0.011140 0.953039 0.011689 AB p337_mb_285 None 2 0 0 0 2
000083 0.005586 0.481368 0.011603 AB p056_mb_086 None 1 0 0 0 1
000214 0.011140 0.960275 0.011601 EV p257_ev_217 None 2 0 0 0 2
000049 0.011140 0.984988 0.011310 EV p084_mb_045 None 2 1 0 0 1
000148 0.005586 0.516807 0.010808 EV p153_ev_131 None 1 1 0 0 0
000024 0.005586 0.531600 0.010507 EV p052_ev_026 None 1 0 0 0 1
000241 0.005586 0.535908 0.010423 AB p300_mb_245 None 1 0 0 0 1
000033 0.005586 0.556787 0.010032 AB p044_mb_035 None 1 0 0 0 1
000232 0.005586 0.559018 0.009992 AB p274_mb_237 None 1 0 0 0 1
000064 0.005586 0.582289 0.009592 EV p112_ev_067 None 1 1 0 0 0
000289 0.005586 0.583095 0.009579 AB p315_mb_292 None 1 0 0 0 1
000230 0.005586 0.601019 0.009293 AB p272_mb_235 None 1 0 0 0 1
000026 0.005586 0.628036 0.008894 AB p054_ev_028 None 1 0 0 0 1
000040 0.005586 0.630700 0.008856 AB p050_mb_041 None 1 1 0 0 0
000300 0.005586 0.654246 0.008537 AB p331_mb_306 None 1 0 0 0 1
000320 0.005586 0.680569 0.008207 AB p341_mb_326 None 1 0 0 0 1
000200 0.005586 0.684977 0.008154 AB p221_mb_204 None 1 0 0 0 1
000070 0.005586 0.702959 0.007946 EV p104_ev_073 None 1 0 0 0 1
000181 0.005586 0.776682 0.007192 AB p211_mb_186 None 1 0 0 0 1
000067 0.005586 0.778241 0.007177 EV p101_ev_070 None 1 0 0 0 1
000174 0.005586 0.780197 0.007159 AB p229_mb_179 None 1 0 0 0 1
000047 0.005586 0.781153 0.007150 AB p036_mb_050 None 1 1 0 0 0
000086 0.005586 0.799229 0.006989 EV p120_ev_089 None 1 0 0 0 1
000228 0.005586 0.803459 0.006952 AB p267_mb_233 None 1 1 0 0 0
000256 0.005586 0.808503 0.006908 AB p272_mb_262 None 1 0 0 1 0
000283 0.005586 0.825360 0.006767 AB p311_mb_289 None 1 1 0 0 0
000318 0.005586 0.847468 0.006591 AB p364_mb_324 None 1 0 0 0 1
000016 0.005586 0.852267 0.006554 AB p066_mb_018 None 1 0 0 1 0
000266 0.005586 0.869028 0.006427 AB p282_mb_272 None 1 0 0 0 1
000063 0.005586 0.886027 0.006304 EV p111_ev_066 None 1 1 0 0 0
000264 0.005586 0.926281 0.006030 AB p276_mb_270 None 1 0 0 0 1
000295 0.005586 0.999703 0.005587 AB p249_mb_301 None 1 1 0 0 0

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: SUNSHINE FIRE PROTECTION DISTRICT BALLOT QUESTION 5A

Number of precincts: 113
Total number of votes cast:  240
Average number of votes/precinct: 2.12389380531
Median number of votes/precinct: 1
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 43
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 1
Ratio of max/min: 43.0
margin =  41.25 percent, 99.0 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    1.34428544109 precincts.
    expected workload =  6.37168141593 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 116.53125 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  1 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  2.12389380531 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  1.03125
    bmin = 113
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  1.0

SAFE says:
    bmin = 113
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 1
    Confidence level achieved =  1.0
    expected workload =  2.12389380531

Negexp says:
    w = 71.413404524
    largest probability =  0.214041385721
    smallest probability =  0.00558553192388
    expected number of precincts audited =  1.31046994473
    expected workload =  11.6986232989 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  1
    largest total probability =  0.179166666667
    smallest total probability =  0.00416666666667
    expected number of precincts audited = 1.0
    expected workload =  9.575 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.0348747190541