Audit Selection Report for Park School District R-3 School Director At Large (4 Years), Vote For 2

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 5.2%

See additional statistical information below...

The audit units are reported for selection in priority order, based on the thresholds below, and the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator using the random seed value 569985350872703 combined with the Batch sequence numbers.

Select the top 1 audit units.

Batch Seq Threshold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots John Baudek Over Todd A. Jirsa Tony Paglia Under
Totals 62 0 65 75 180
000099 0.451720 0.019178 23.553787 AB p099_mb_602 150 12 0 0 2 1 9
000086 0.095309 0.005833 16.340429 AB p086_mb_508 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000294 0.181534 0.013977 12.988488 AB p294_mb_498 150 4 2 0 2 0 0
000077 0.095309 0.017281 5.515283 AB p077_mb_322 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000119 0.393959 0.072968 5.399098 AB p119_mb_451 150 10 1 0 0 0 9
000161 0.181534 0.036013 5.040850 AB p161_mb_654 150 4 0 0 0 1 3
000009 0.503976 0.317568 1.586986 AB p009_mb_571 150 14 3 0 6 2 3
000328 0.330113 0.212939 1.550273 AB p328_mb_398 150 8 2 0 3 1 2
000249 0.259541 0.194148 1.336821 AB p249_mb_601 150 6 0 0 0 0 6
000155 0.259541 0.200833 1.292323 AB p155_mb_587 150 6 0 0 0 1 5
000259 0.181534 0.149733 1.212385 AB p259_mb_652 150 4 2 0 1 0 1
000226 0.095309 0.078678 1.211380 AB p226_mb_359 150 2 0 0 1 0 1
000162 0.095309 0.079993 1.191463 AB p162_mb_655 150 2 1 0 0 0 1
000073 0.393959 0.332680 1.184199 AB p073_mb_337 100 10 2 0 1 0 7
000172 0.393959 0.338459 1.163981 AB p172_mb_644 150 10 1 0 1 0 8
000043 0.181534 0.161408 1.124687 AB p043_mb_658 150 4 0 0 0 1 3
000126 0.393959 0.383868 1.026288 AB p126_mb_318 150 10 3 0 1 2 4
000114 0.095309 0.093261 1.021960 AB p114_mb_695 150 2 1 0 0 0 1
000376 0.259541 0.272367 0.952909 AB p376_mb_267 150 6 3 0 0 3 0
000097 0.181534 0.192777 0.941678 AB p097_mb_542 150 4 0 0 0 0 4
000277 0.181534 0.195097 0.930478 AB p277_mb_653 150 4 0 0 0 1 3
000012 0.181534 0.201894 0.899154 AB p012_mb_575 140 4 1 0 1 2 0
000276 0.181534 0.202759 0.895319 AB p276_mb_616 150 4 0 0 0 0 4
000029 0.181534 0.213338 0.850923 AB p029_mb_534 150 4 0 0 2 2 0
000287 0.095309 0.113232 0.841715 AB p287_mb_457 150 2 0 0 1 1 0
000066 0.181534 0.218066 0.832472 AB p066_mb_691 150 4 2 0 1 0 1
000101 0.095309 0.119014 0.800823 AB p101_mb_513 150 2 0 0 0 1 1
000056 0.632715 0.804191 0.786771 AB p056_mb_648 150 20 6 0 5 7 2
000060 0.259541 0.345997 0.750125 AB p060_mb_672 150 6 2 0 0 0 4
000188 0.181534 0.251786 0.720984 AB p188_mb_615 150 4 0 0 2 2 0
000197 0.451720 0.675784 0.668439 AB p197_mb_628 151 12 3 0 3 5 1
000098 0.095309 0.146274 0.651576 AB p098_mb_522 150 2 0 0 1 1 0
000040 0.095309 0.154405 0.617266 AB p040_mb_660 150 2 0 0 1 1 0
000323 0.393959 0.666002 0.591529 AB p323_mb_316 149 10 0 0 3 3 4
000350 0.330113 0.574119 0.574991 AB p350_mb_394 150 8 1 0 1 1 5
000107 0.330113 0.578776 0.570365 AB p107_mb_515 150 8 0 0 3 4 1
000146 0.095309 0.187097 0.509409 AB p146_mb_630 150 2 0 0 0 1 1
000157 0.095309 0.188510 0.505591 AB p157_mb_589 150 2 1 0 0 1 0
000299 0.095309 0.196995 0.483814 AB p299_mb_377 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000227 0.181534 0.381856 0.475399 AB p227_mb_355 150 4 0 0 0 0 4
000016 0.181534 0.390700 0.464638 AB p016_mb_591 150 4 0 0 0 0 4
000175 0.181534 0.397975 0.456144 AB p175_mb_638 150 4 0 0 0 1 3
000035 0.095309 0.220019 0.433184 AB p035_mb_556 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000045 0.181534 0.448446 0.404806 AB p045_mb_550 150 4 0 0 1 1 2
000185 0.181534 0.461370 0.393467 AB p185_mb_689 150 4 1 0 1 1 1
000006 0.095309 0.245237 0.388639 AB p006_mb_566 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000335 0.181534 0.467444 0.388354 AB p335_mb_441 150 4 1 0 0 0 3
000186 0.181534 0.488840 0.371357 AB p186_mb_696 150 4 0 0 1 1 2
000308 0.181534 0.493668 0.367724 AB p308_mb_353 150 4 0 0 0 1 3
000250 0.181534 0.504511 0.359822 AB p250_mb_600 150 4 0 0 2 2 0
000262 0.259541 0.774803 0.334977 AB p262_mb_664 150 6 0 0 0 0 6
000082 0.095309 0.291195 0.327302 AB p082_mb_535 150 2 1 0 1 0 0
000243 0.095309 0.339225 0.280961 AB p243_mb_472 69 2 1 0 1 0 0
000069 0.181534 0.648126 0.280090 AB p069_mb_341 150 4 0 0 0 2 2
000270 0.181534 0.693714 0.261684 AB p270_mb_668 149 4 1 0 1 0 2
000091 0.181534 0.707560 0.256563 AB p091_mb_481 150 4 1 0 1 0 2
000203 0.181534 0.732381 0.247868 AB p203_mb_313 131 4 2 0 2 0 0
000317 0.181534 0.736858 0.246362 AB p317_mb_436 150 4 1 0 1 1 1
000229 0.095309 0.391154 0.243660 AB p229_mb_497 149 2 0 0 1 1 0
000266 0.095309 0.395883 0.240750 AB p266_mb_634 150 2 1 0 0 0 1
000235 0.095309 0.397836 0.239568 AB p235_mb_480 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000390 0.095309 0.400721 0.237843 AB p390_mb_429 150 2 0 0 0 1 1
000041 0.181534 0.780013 0.232732 AB p041_mb_650 150 4 0 0 0 0 4
000392 0.095309 0.419255 0.227329 AB p392_mb_279 150 2 0 0 0 1 1
000058 0.095309 0.426550 0.223441 AB p058_mb_697 148 2 0 0 0 1 1
000269 0.181534 0.825943 0.219790 AB p269_mb_663 150 4 1 0 1 1 1
000279 0.181534 0.835847 0.217186 AB p279_mb_360 150 4 2 0 0 2 0
000153 0.095309 0.452696 0.210536 AB p153_mb_585 150 2 0 0 0 1 1
000255 0.181534 0.895642 0.202686 AB p255_mb_626 136 4 0 0 0 0 4
000075 0.181534 0.914968 0.198405 AB p075_mb_334 118 4 2 0 1 1 0
000087 0.181534 0.935415 0.194068 AB p087_mb_507 150 4 2 0 0 2 0
000371 0.095309 0.498174 0.191316 AB p371_mb_365 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000199 0.095309 0.502185 0.189788 AB p199_mb_618 149 2 0 0 0 0 2
000423 0.095309 0.530640 0.179611 AB p423_mb_287 153 2 0 0 1 1 0
000093 0.095309 0.547559 0.174061 AB p093_mb_526 149 2 1 0 1 0 0
000003 0.095309 0.554564 0.171862 AB p003_mb_544 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000034 0.095309 0.579485 0.164472 AB p034_mb_555 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000062 0.095309 0.596986 0.159650 AB p062_mb_688 149 2 1 0 1 0 0
000083 0.095309 0.622839 0.153023 AB p083_mb_521 150 2 1 0 1 0 0
000418 0.095309 0.639956 0.148930 AB p418_mb_282 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000074 0.095309 0.685019 0.139133 AB p074_mb_335 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000057 0.095309 0.705503 0.135093 AB p057_mb_662 150 2 0 0 0 1 1
000363 0.095309 0.729246 0.130695 AB p363_mb_425 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000020 0.095309 0.749010 0.127246 AB p020_mb_580 150 2 0 0 1 1 0
000010 0.095309 0.774266 0.123096 AB p010_mb_572 150 2 1 0 0 1 0
000065 0.095309 0.788842 0.120821 AB p065_mb_685 142 2 0 0 0 0 2
000333 0.095309 0.799963 0.119141 AB p333_mb_336 150 2 0 0 0 0 2
000109 0.095309 0.800575 0.119050 AB p109_mb_465 150 2 1 0 0 1 0
000150 0.095309 0.809701 0.117709 AB p150_mb_582 150 2 1 0 0 1 0
000160 0.095309 0.829004 0.114968 AB p160_mb_518 149 2 0 0 0 0 2
000094 0.095309 0.836160 0.113984 AB p094_mb_524 150 2 0 0 1 1 0
000154 0.095309 0.924410 0.103102 AB p154_mb_586 149 2 0 0 0 0 2
000220 0.095309 0.926827 0.102833 AB p220_mb_412 150 2 0 0 1 1 0
000300 0.095309 0.942865 0.101084 AB p300_mb_346 149 2 1 0 1 0 0
000288 0.095309 0.946596 0.100686 AB p288_mb_456 150 2 1 0 0 1 0
000148 0.095309 0.963496 0.098920 AB p148_mb_463 150 2 0 0 0 0 2

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: Park School District R-3 School Director At Large (4 Years), Vote For 2

Number of precincts: 96
Total number of votes cast:  382
Average number of votes/precinct: 3.97916666667
Median number of votes/precinct: 2
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 20
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 2
Ratio of max/min: 10.0
margin =  2.89855 percent, 11.072461 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    19.1308669662 precincts.
    expected workload =  139.270833333 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 6.95652 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  17 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  67.6458333333 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  0.754562381904
    bmin = 2
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  0.324342105263

SAFE says:
    bmin = 2
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 48
    Confidence level achieved =  0.752631578947
    expected workload =  191.0

Negexp says:
    w = 7.98709228757
    largest probability =  0.632714598185
    smallest probability =  0.0953087983477
    expected number of precincts audited =  16.5003421656
    expected workload =  97.6179864447 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  19
    largest total probability =  0.640036103059
    smallest total probability =  0.0949252679464
    expected number of precincts audited = 16.5049903479
    expected workload =  97.9516127525 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.00732150487417