Audit Selection Report for Town of Lyons Ballot Issue 2A

Proportion of the total number of votes for this contest that were cast within this county: 100.0%

See additional statistical information below...

The audit units are reported for selection in priority order, based on the thresholds below, and the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator using the random seed value 569985350872703 combined with the Batch sequence numbers.

Select the top 15 audit units.

Batch Seq Threshold Random Priority Type Batches Ballots Contest Ballots No Over Under Yes
Totals 273 0 2 254
000086 0.253121 0.005833 43.396811 AB p086_mb_508 150 10 3 0 0 7
000118 0.083832 0.010900 7.691038 AB p118_mb_449 150 3 2 0 0 1
000025 0.083832 0.025277 3.316489 AB p025_mb_562 150 3 0 0 0 3
000077 0.056699 0.017281 3.281054 AB p077_mb_322 150 2 1 0 0 1
000133 0.110184 0.035545 3.099802 AB p133_mb_489 150 4 3 0 0 1
000272 0.083832 0.033268 2.519878 AB p272_mb_698 150 3 0 0 0 3
000161 0.083832 0.036013 2.327853 AB p161_mb_654 150 3 2 0 0 1
000341 0.056699 0.027437 2.066494 AB p341_mb_380 150 2 2 0 0 0
000099 0.028763 0.019178 1.499792 AB p099_mb_602 150 1 0 0 0 1
000035 0.295468 0.220019 1.342920 AB p035_mb_556 150 12 7 0 0 5
000098 0.184779 0.146274 1.263236 AB p098_mb_522 150 7 3 0 0 4
000076 0.028763 0.024942 1.153195 AB p076_mb_471 150 1 1 0 0 0
000043 0.184779 0.161408 1.144792 AB p043_mb_658 150 7 3 0 0 4
000249 0.208227 0.194148 1.072520 AB p249_mb_601 150 8 6 0 0 2
000287 0.083832 0.113232 0.740358 AB p287_mb_457 150 3 0 0 0 3
000120 0.160636 0.232017 0.692346 AB p120_mb_371 150 6 5 0 0 1
000411 0.056699 0.086689 0.654054 AB p411_mb_280 150 2 0 0 0 2
000275 0.056699 0.092784 0.611088 AB p275_mb_519 150 2 1 0 0 1
000384 0.056699 0.098713 0.574388 AB p384_mb_254 150 2 2 0 0 0
000356 0.028763 0.051616 0.557261 AB p356_mb_414 150 1 0 0 0 1
000006 0.135778 0.245237 0.553660 AB p006_mb_566 150 5 2 0 0 3
000172 0.184779 0.338459 0.545943 AB p172_mb_644 150 7 5 0 0 2
000029 0.110184 0.213338 0.516477 AB p029_mb_534 150 4 0 0 0 4
000296 0.160636 0.335263 0.479135 AB p296_mb_324 150 6 4 0 0 2
000016 0.184779 0.390700 0.472944 AB p016_mb_591 150 7 5 0 0 2
000134 0.028763 0.062492 0.460273 AB p134_mb_490 150 1 1 0 0 0
000153 0.208227 0.452696 0.459972 AB p153_mb_585 150 8 7 0 0 1
000009 0.135778 0.317568 0.427556 AB p009_mb_571 150 5 2 0 0 3
000298 0.135778 0.324091 0.418951 AB p298_mb_325 150 5 2 0 0 3
000276 0.083832 0.202759 0.413456 AB p276_mb_616 150 3 0 0 0 3
000278 0.028763 0.072063 0.399143 AB p278_mb_623 150 1 0 0 0 1
000119 0.028763 0.072968 0.394194 AB p119_mb_451 150 1 0 0 0 1
000295 0.083832 0.216825 0.386633 AB p295_mb_520 150 3 0 0 0 3
000395 0.110184 0.286433 0.384676 AB p395_mb_263 150 4 4 0 0 0
000330 0.083832 0.220646 0.379939 AB p330_mb_330 150 3 2 0 0 1
000230 0.056699 0.151038 0.375399 AB p230_mb_496 150 2 2 0 0 0
000338 0.083832 0.226370 0.370331 AB p338_mb_384 150 3 3 0 0 0
000040 0.056699 0.154405 0.367213 AB p040_mb_660 150 2 2 0 0 0
000226 0.028763 0.078678 0.365584 AB p226_mb_359 150 1 0 0 0 1
000056 0.274603 0.804191 0.341465 AB p056_mb_648 150 11 6 0 0 5
000113 0.056699 0.167596 0.338311 AB p113_mb_694 150 2 1 0 0 1
000421 0.056699 0.181724 0.312008 AB p421_mb_294 145 2 1 0 0 1
000114 0.028763 0.093261 0.308419 AB p114_mb_695 150 1 1 0 0 0
000146 0.056699 0.187097 0.303049 AB p146_mb_630 150 2 2 0 0 0
000277 0.056699 0.195097 0.290621 AB p277_mb_653 150 2 1 0 0 1
000299 0.056699 0.196995 0.287822 AB p299_mb_377 150 2 2 0 0 0
000126 0.110184 0.383868 0.287036 AB p126_mb_318 150 4 2 0 1 1
000381 0.028763 0.101903 0.282262 AB p381_mb_245 139 1 0 0 0 1
000372 0.028763 0.102876 0.279592 AB p372_mb_364 150 1 1 0 0 0
000027 0.056699 0.204039 0.277884 AB p027_mb_532 150 2 0 0 0 2
000340 0.110184 0.401829 0.274206 AB p340_mb_400 150 4 0 0 0 4
000370 0.208227 0.763322 0.272791 AB p370_mb_366 150 8 6 0 0 2
000105 0.083832 0.314941 0.266183 AB p105_mb_536 150 3 3 0 0 0
000023 0.110184 0.418577 0.263234 AB p023_mb_564 150 4 0 0 0 4
000144 0.110184 0.420101 0.262280 AB p144_mb_483 150 4 2 0 0 2
000042 0.028763 0.112267 0.256204 AB p042_mb_631 150 1 0 0 0 1
000039 0.056699 0.224570 0.252480 AB p039_mb_576 150 2 0 0 0 2
000128 0.110184 0.448521 0.245661 AB p128_mb_309 150 4 2 0 0 2
000380 0.135778 0.558180 0.243252 AB p380_mb_244 150 5 0 0 0 5
000060 0.083832 0.345997 0.242291 AB p060_mb_672 150 3 2 0 0 1
000101 0.028763 0.119014 0.241681 AB p101_mb_513 150 1 1 0 0 0
000282 0.110184 0.469012 0.234928 AB p282_mb_488 150 4 0 0 0 4
000406 0.083832 0.357300 0.234626 AB p406_mb_261 150 3 2 0 0 1
000107 0.135778 0.578776 0.234595 AB p107_mb_515 150 5 2 0 0 3
000373 0.135778 0.580105 0.234058 AB p373_mb_422 150 5 3 0 0 2
000109 0.184779 0.800575 0.230808 AB p109_mb_465 150 7 3 0 0 4
000306 0.110184 0.492662 0.223650 AB p306_mb_304 150 4 2 0 0 2
000293 0.160636 0.725376 0.221452 AB p293_mb_499 150 6 5 0 0 1
000169 0.028763 0.131133 0.219345 AB p169_mb_642 150 1 1 0 0 0
000141 0.056699 0.263020 0.215571 AB p141_mb_453 150 2 0 0 0 2
000031 0.056699 0.268800 0.210935 AB p031_mb_551 150 2 2 0 0 0
000175 0.083832 0.397975 0.210646 AB p175_mb_638 150 3 3 0 0 0
000074 0.135778 0.685019 0.198211 AB p074_mb_335 150 5 1 0 0 4
000156 0.056699 0.287198 0.197423 AB p156_mb_588 149 2 0 0 0 2
000058 0.083832 0.426550 0.196535 AB p058_mb_697 148 3 3 0 0 0
000326 0.028763 0.148286 0.193973 AB p326_mb_401 150 1 1 0 0 0
000259 0.028763 0.149733 0.192098 AB p259_mb_652 150 1 1 0 0 0
000091 0.135778 0.707560 0.191896 AB p091_mb_481 150 5 1 0 0 4
000148 0.184779 0.963496 0.191780 AB p148_mb_463 150 7 3 0 0 4
000045 0.083832 0.448446 0.186939 AB p045_mb_550 150 3 0 0 0 3
000251 0.110184 0.596030 0.184863 AB p251_mb_599 150 4 4 0 0 0
000138 0.083832 0.461952 0.181473 AB p138_mb_455 150 3 0 0 0 3
000083 0.110184 0.622839 0.176906 AB p083_mb_521 150 4 3 0 0 1
000292 0.056699 0.349647 0.162162 AB p292_mb_500 150 2 2 0 0 0
000302 0.083832 0.517655 0.161946 AB p302_mb_326 150 3 2 0 0 1
000100 0.028763 0.178447 0.161187 AB p100_mb_592 150 1 1 0 0 0
000408 0.056699 0.358307 0.158243 AB p408_mb_276 150 2 0 0 0 2
000213 0.135778 0.862405 0.157441 AB p213_mb_376 150 5 5 0 0 0
000046 0.110184 0.704090 0.156491 AB p046_mb_548 150 4 1 0 0 3
000224 0.110184 0.721387 0.152739 AB p224_mb_357 150 4 1 0 0 3
000191 0.028763 0.190567 0.150936 AB p191_mb_608 150 1 0 0 0 1
000158 0.135778 0.909556 0.149279 AB p158_mb_640 150 5 3 0 0 2
000097 0.028763 0.192777 0.149205 AB p097_mb_542 150 1 0 0 0 1
000227 0.056699 0.381856 0.148484 AB p227_mb_355 150 2 1 0 0 1
000264 0.056699 0.389061 0.145734 AB p264_mb_597 150 2 1 0 0 1
000313 0.135778 0.932013 0.145683 AB p313_mb_348 300 5 4 0 0 1
000155 0.028763 0.200833 0.143221 AB p155_mb_587 150 1 0 0 0 1
000012 0.028763 0.201894 0.142468 AB p012_mb_575 140 1 1 0 0 0
000262 0.110184 0.774803 0.142209 AB p262_mb_664 150 4 3 0 0 1
000390 0.056699 0.400721 0.141494 AB p390_mb_429 150 2 0 0 0 2
000417 0.083832 0.601497 0.139372 AB p417_mb_283 150 3 2 0 0 1
000328 0.028763 0.212939 0.135078 AB p328_mb_398 150 1 0 0 0 1
000094 0.110184 0.836160 0.131774 AB p094_mb_524 150 4 1 0 0 3
000316 0.083832 0.638124 0.131372 AB p316_mb_435 150 3 1 0 0 2
000359 0.028763 0.219341 0.131136 AB p359_mb_303 150 1 1 0 0 0
000311 0.028763 0.222051 0.129535 AB p311_mb_350 150 1 0 0 0 1
000314 0.110184 0.857678 0.128468 AB p314_mb_347 300 4 2 0 0 2
000385 0.028763 0.225788 0.127391 AB p385_mb_255 150 1 1 0 0 0
000217 0.083832 0.667250 0.125638 AB p217_mb_373 150 3 2 0 0 1
000159 0.056699 0.454923 0.124635 AB p159_mb_641 150 2 2 0 0 0
000185 0.056699 0.461370 0.122894 AB p185_mb_689 150 2 0 0 0 2
000339 0.056699 0.471994 0.120127 AB p339_mb_385 150 2 2 0 0 0
000220 0.110184 0.926827 0.118883 AB p220_mb_412 150 4 4 0 0 0
000063 0.056699 0.481822 0.117677 AB p063_mb_687 150 2 1 0 0 1
000300 0.110184 0.942865 0.116861 AB p300_mb_346 149 4 3 0 0 1
000186 0.056699 0.488840 0.115988 AB p186_mb_696 150 2 1 0 0 1
000308 0.056699 0.493668 0.114853 AB p308_mb_353 150 2 2 0 0 0
000233 0.083832 0.730355 0.114782 AB p233_mb_494 150 3 2 0 0 1
000371 0.056699 0.498174 0.113815 AB p371_mb_365 150 2 0 0 0 2
000149 0.056699 0.499338 0.113549 AB p149_mb_462 150 2 2 0 0 0
000250 0.056699 0.504511 0.112385 AB p250_mb_600 150 2 2 0 0 0
000331 0.056699 0.516224 0.109835 AB p331_mb_439 150 2 0 0 0 2
000377 0.028763 0.264705 0.108662 AB p377_mb_268 150 1 0 0 0 1
000204 0.083832 0.772318 0.108546 AB p204_mb_392 150 3 1 0 1 1
000260 0.056699 0.523813 0.108244 AB p260_mb_577 150 2 2 0 0 0
000165 0.028763 0.271849 0.105807 AB p165_mb_581 150 1 0 0 0 1
000376 0.028763 0.272367 0.105605 AB p376_mb_267 150 1 0 0 0 1
000207 0.028763 0.273585 0.105135 AB p207_mb_388 150 1 0 0 0 1
000093 0.056699 0.547559 0.103549 AB p093_mb_526 149 2 2 0 0 0
000304 0.083832 0.841926 0.099572 AB p304_mb_403 300 3 1 0 0 2
000082 0.028763 0.291195 0.098777 AB p082_mb_535 150 1 0 0 0 1
000052 0.028763 0.297206 0.096779 AB p052_mb_633 150 1 0 0 0 1
000232 0.028763 0.299678 0.095981 AB p232_mb_421 150 1 1 0 0 0
000004 0.056699 0.594501 0.095373 AB p004_mb_545 150 2 0 0 0 2
000246 0.083832 0.881906 0.095058 AB p246_mb_657 150 3 2 0 0 1
000412 0.028763 0.313957 0.091616 AB p412_mb_274 150 1 0 0 0 1
000087 0.083832 0.935415 0.089620 AB p087_mb_507 150 3 1 0 0 2
000405 0.083832 0.943997 0.088805 AB p405_mb_293 150 3 1 0 0 2
000418 0.056699 0.639956 0.088599 AB p418_mb_282 150 2 0 0 0 2
000050 0.028763 0.326694 0.088044 AB p050_mb_579 150 1 0 0 0 1
000068 0.056699 0.644565 0.087965 AB p068_mb_342 150 2 0 0 0 2
000424 0.056699 0.655633 0.086480 AB p424_mb_296 73 2 0 0 0 2
000184 0.028763 0.334295 0.086042 AB p184_mb_333 150 1 1 0 0 0
000243 0.028763 0.339225 0.084791 AB p243_mb_472 69 1 1 0 0 0
000197 0.056699 0.675784 0.083902 AB p197_mb_628 151 2 0 0 0 2
000345 0.056699 0.695871 0.081480 AB p345_mb_399 150 2 2 0 0 0
000218 0.056699 0.705710 0.080344 AB p218_mb_372 150 2 2 0 0 0
000139 0.056699 0.707577 0.080132 AB p139_mb_512 150 2 0 0 0 2
000047 0.056699 0.712191 0.079613 AB p047_mb_547 150 2 0 0 0 2
000171 0.056699 0.733756 0.077273 AB p171_mb_643 150 2 2 0 0 0
000102 0.056699 0.753237 0.075274 AB p102_mb_511 150 2 2 0 0 0
000402 0.028763 0.382293 0.075239 AB p402_mb_249 150 1 1 0 0 0
000315 0.028763 0.382486 0.075201 AB p315_mb_434 150 1 1 0 0 0
000229 0.028763 0.391154 0.073535 AB p229_mb_497 149 1 0 0 0 1
000318 0.056699 0.775318 0.073131 AB p318_mb_437 150 2 0 0 0 2
000266 0.028763 0.395883 0.072656 AB p266_mb_634 150 1 1 0 0 0
000235 0.028763 0.397836 0.072300 AB p235_mb_480 150 1 1 0 0 0
000413 0.056699 0.796652 0.071172 AB p413_mb_291 149 2 0 0 0 2
000187 0.028763 0.418422 0.068742 AB p187_mb_700 150 1 0 0 0 1
000005 0.056699 0.831934 0.068154 AB p005_mb_568 150 2 2 0 0 0
000409 0.028763 0.429631 0.066949 AB p409_mb_275 150 1 1 0 0 0
000257 0.056699 0.883320 0.064189 AB p257_mb_629 150 2 2 0 0 0
000312 0.028763 0.449318 0.064016 AB p312_mb_349 150 1 0 0 0 1
000410 0.056699 0.886329 0.063971 AB p410_mb_281 150 2 0 0 0 2
000327 0.028763 0.451464 0.063711 AB p327_mb_444 150 1 0 0 0 1
000369 0.056699 0.895551 0.063312 AB p369_mb_367 150 2 0 0 0 2
000130 0.028763 0.456228 0.063046 AB p130_mb_539 150 1 1 0 0 0
000366 0.028763 0.465491 0.061792 AB p366_mb_386 150 1 0 0 0 1
000335 0.028763 0.467444 0.061533 AB p335_mb_441 150 1 0 0 0 1
000252 0.028763 0.475023 0.060552 AB p252_mb_598 150 1 0 0 0 1
000288 0.056699 0.946596 0.059898 AB p288_mb_456 150 2 1 0 0 1
000048 0.028763 0.480489 0.059863 AB p048_mb_546 150 1 0 0 0 1
000347 0.056699 0.959615 0.059086 AB p347_mb_419 150 2 0 0 0 2
000036 0.028763 0.490256 0.058670 AB p036_mb_557 150 1 1 0 0 0
000265 0.056699 0.966658 0.058655 AB p265_mb_617 150 2 1 0 0 1
000117 0.056699 0.972441 0.058306 AB p117_mb_450 150 2 2 0 0 0
000038 0.056699 0.978946 0.057919 AB p038_mb_529 150 2 2 0 0 0
000256 0.056699 0.982008 0.057738 AB p256_mb_651 150 2 2 0 0 0
000199 0.028763 0.502185 0.057276 AB p199_mb_618 149 1 1 0 0 0
000416 0.028763 0.502763 0.057211 AB p416_mb_284 174 1 0 0 0 1
000320 0.056699 0.996435 0.056902 AB p320_mb_395 150 2 2 0 0 0
000176 0.028763 0.507949 0.056626 AB p176_mb_637 150 1 0 0 0 1
000195 0.028763 0.522016 0.055101 AB p195_mb_603 150 1 0 0 0 1
000003 0.028763 0.554564 0.051867 AB p003_mb_544 150 1 0 0 0 1
000216 0.028763 0.568516 0.050594 AB p216_mb_307 150 1 0 0 0 1
000034 0.028763 0.579485 0.049636 AB p034_mb_555 150 1 0 0 0 1
000198 0.028763 0.629281 0.045708 AB p198_mb_690 150 1 0 0 0 1
000337 0.028763 0.652644 0.044072 AB p337_mb_383 150 1 0 0 0 1
000323 0.028763 0.666002 0.043188 AB p323_mb_316 149 1 0 0 0 1
000236 0.028763 0.668072 0.043054 AB p236_mb_479 150 1 1 0 0 0
000270 0.028763 0.693714 0.041463 AB p270_mb_668 149 1 1 0 0 0
000164 0.028763 0.694251 0.041431 AB p164_mb_622 150 1 0 0 0 1
000129 0.028763 0.696344 0.041306 AB p129_mb_310 150 1 1 0 0 0
000419 0.028763 0.702024 0.040972 AB p419_mb_285 150 1 1 0 0 0
000135 0.028763 0.703026 0.040914 AB p135_mb_492 150 1 0 0 0 1
000057 0.028763 0.705503 0.040770 AB p057_mb_662 150 1 1 0 0 0
000055 0.028763 0.717826 0.040070 AB p055_mb_649 150 1 1 0 0 0
000348 0.028763 0.727914 0.039515 AB p348_mb_418 150 1 1 0 0 0
000363 0.028763 0.729246 0.039443 AB p363_mb_425 150 1 1 0 0 0
000261 0.028763 0.730822 0.039358 AB p261_mb_578 150 1 1 0 0 0
000317 0.028763 0.736858 0.039035 AB p317_mb_436 150 1 1 0 0 0
000010 0.028763 0.774266 0.037149 AB p010_mb_572 150 1 0 0 0 1
000333 0.028763 0.799963 0.035956 AB p333_mb_336 150 1 1 0 0 0
000303 0.028763 0.801989 0.035865 AB p303_mb_327 150 1 1 0 0 0
000400 0.028763 0.807504 0.035620 AB p400_mb_278 149 1 1 0 0 0
000269 0.028763 0.825943 0.034825 AB p269_mb_663 150 1 0 0 0 1
000279 0.028763 0.835847 0.034412 AB p279_mb_360 150 1 1 0 0 0
000319 0.028763 0.837385 0.034349 AB p319_mb_438 150 1 0 0 0 1
000084 0.028763 0.851288 0.033788 AB p084_mb_525 150 1 1 0 0 0
000420 0.028763 0.861073 0.033404 AB p420_mb_286 105 1 0 0 0 1
000368 0.028763 0.891990 0.032246 AB p368_mb_427 150 1 1 0 0 0
000026 0.028763 0.900861 0.031929 AB p026_mb_561 150 1 1 0 0 0
000075 0.028763 0.914968 0.031436 AB p075_mb_334 118 1 0 0 0 1
000154 0.028763 0.924410 0.031115 AB p154_mb_586 149 1 0 0 0 1
000030 0.028763 0.973221 0.029555 AB p030_mb_537 150 1 1 0 0 0
000167 0.028763 0.985247 0.029194 AB p167_mb_516 150 1 1 0 0 0

Audit statistics

The "Number of audit units to audit" is based on the NEGEXP method, which is very efficient and requires selecting larger audit units with higher probability than smaller ones. The numbers given here are based on a confidence level of 75%. I.e. they are designed so the audit will either 1) find a discrepancy and call for an escalation or full hand recount, or 2) reduce the risk of confirming an incorrect outcome to (100 - 75)%, even if the tally system has been manipulated. A maximum "within-precinct-miscount" of 20% is assumed. See On Auditing Elections When Precincts Have Different Sizes, by Javed A. Aslam, Raluca A. Popa and Ronald L. Rivest


Contest: Town of Lyons Ballot Issue 2A

Number of precincts: 216
Total number of votes cast:  529
Average number of votes/precinct: 2.44907407407
Median number of votes/precinct: 2
Maximum number of votes/precinct: 12
Minimum number of votes/precinct: 1
Ratio of max/min: 12.0
margin =  3.59168241966 percent, 19.0 votes
s =  0.2  (maximum within-precinct-miscount)
alpha =  0.25  (confidence is 1 - alpha:  0.75 )

Rule of Thumb says:
    15.4389414112 precincts.
    expected workload =  68.5740740741 votes counted.

APR says:
    b = 19.3950850662 precincts needed to hold corruption
    u =  14 precincts to audit
    expected workload =  34.287037037 votes
    confidence level to find one of b =  0.743499100817
    bmin = 5
    confidence level to find one of bmin =  0.28702510088

SAFE says:
    bmin = 5
    Number of precincts to audit = u = 52
    Confidence level achieved =  0.751417313698
    expected workload =  127.351851852

Negexp says:
    w = 13.7056028884
    largest probability =  0.2954681458
    smallest probability =  0.0287633712469
    expected number of precincts audited =  14.596120508
    expected workload =  56.2072988201 votes counted

PPEBWR says:
    t =  15
    largest total probability =  0.291201049418
    smallest total probability =  0.027983230677
    expected number of precincts audited = 14.2512309543
    expected workload =  54.99998227 votes counted.
    max difference from negexp =  0.0042670963821