Audit Selections and Results for COUNTY CORONER Vote For 1
- Margin of victory: 12.963%
- Margin adjustment e.g. for ballots not yet tallied : -5347
- Total possible miscount / Total apparent margin ("U"): 13.213693
- Number of audit units: 492
Audit units are selected for audit weighted by the maximum possible miscount (u_{p}) they could contain. The audit units listed below were selected using the random seed value 286630844411402 combined with the "Sequence" numbers according to the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator, to generate the values in the "Random" column. Each value from the "Random" column was then looked up in the "Cumulative Probability Total" column of the Unofficial Vote Tabulation Report, and the last row for which the "Cumulative Probability Total" was still larger than the Random number was selected.
This table lists the original machine counts, followed by the hand counts (as they become available), for each audit unit. If there is a discrepancy, the "Margin reduction" column lists the net reduction in the margin of victory for the unofficial winner, in votes. It will be negative if the margin increased. If there is a discrepancy, the "Taint" column will have a non-zero number. The KM column (Kaplan-Markov factor) indicates by what fraction each hand count reduces the probability of an incorrect outcome. It is larger when the Taint is greater than zero.
The Cumulative KM column summarizes the progress of the auditing for this contest. It comes from multiplying together all the KM factors up to and including that audit unit. When it becomes less than or equal to the pre-specified P-value (0.5 for this audit), the audit has reached its risk-reduction target. The progress is also shown in the graph, as the remaining risk drops down towards the target.
The first half of this list will be audited first, and if there are not many discrepancies with the hand count, that is all that will be needed. Otherwise, additional units moving down the list will be audited, until the target is reached. For more details, see the references on the main page.
Sequence | Random | Batches | Ballots | Maximum relative miscount: u_{p} | Daniel H. Pruett | Emma R. Hall | Over | Under | Daniel H. Pruett | Emma R. Hall | Over | Under | Margin reduction | Taint | KM | Cumulative KM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
000001 | 0.962128 | p371_ed_430 | 286 | 0.032638 | 66 | 118 | 0 | 102 | 66 | 118 | 0 | 102 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.924321 | |
000002 | 0.977478 | p379_mb_258 | 294 | 0.034280 | 58 | 119 | 0 | 117 | 59 | 119 | 0 | 116 | 1 (see note) | 0.002817 | 0.926932 | 0.856783 |
000003 | 0.226795 | p078_mb_182 | 296 | 0.030224 | 96 | 113 | 0 | 87 | 96 | 113 | 0 | 87 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.791942 | |
000004 | 0.599014 | p238_mb_085 | 300 | 0.026844 | 130 | 108 | 0 | 62 | 130 | 108 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.732009 | |
000005 | 0.316512 | p118_mb_240 | 291 | 0.027424 | 105 | 98 | 1 | 87 | 105 | 98 | 1 | 87 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.676611 | |
000006 | 0.114737 | p029_mb_153 | 299 | 0.033217 | 88 | 133 | 0 | 78 | 88 | 133 | 0 | 78 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.625406 | |
000007 | 0.639247 | p255_mb_472 | 297 | 0.035245 | 69 | 137 | 0 | 91 | 69 | 137 | 0 | 91 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.578076 | |
000008 | 0.971298 | p377_mb_260 | 299 | 0.038625 | 44 | 145 | 1 | 109 | 44 | 145 | 1 | 109 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.534327 | |
000009 | 0.866513 | p337_ed_381 | 316 | 0.038818 | 60 | 146 | 0 | 110 | 60 | 146 | 0 | 110 | 0 | 0.924321 | 0.493890 | |
000010 | 0.877588 | p341_ed_412 | 281 | 0.035728 | 50 | 139 | 0 | 92 | ||||||||
000011 | 0.423271 | p164_mb_044 | 296 | 0.031769 | 90 | 123 | 0 | 83 | ||||||||
000012 | 0.829834 | p325_ed_417 | 343 | 0.039204 | 68 | 131 | 0 | 144 | ||||||||
000013 | 0.357363 | p135_mb_058 | 292 | 0.027520 | 113 | 106 | 0 | 73 | ||||||||
000014 | 0.217157 | p074_mb_231 | 295 | 0.029355 | 103 | 112 | 0 | 80 | ||||||||
000015 | 0.583652 | p231_mb_144 | 592 | 0.059000 | 196 | 215 | 0 | 181 | ||||||||
000016 | 0.602845 | p240_mb_099 | 299 | 0.031576 | 105 | 133 | 0 | 61 | ||||||||
000017 | 0.398388 | p153_mb_103 | 299 | 0.030321 | 107 | 122 | 0 | 70 | ||||||||
000018 | 0.076099 | p013_ev_220 | 300 | 0.035149 | 68 | 132 | 0 | 100 |
Discrepancy Notes
ContestBatch p379_mb_258: Ballot 046-DS-19: A check mark was resolved as a Pruett vote by the audit team and an undervote by the resolution team
KM Factor Graph
Here is an interactive graph of the KM factor data. Hover the mouse over the points to see the exact values.
Page generated: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:38:07 -0700