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Audit Selections and Results for Congress03

• Margin of victory: 5.136%
• Margin adjustment e.g. for ballots not yet tallied : 0
• Total possible miscount / Total apparent margin ("U"): 20.470120
• Number of audit units: 774

Audit units are selected for audit weighted by the maximum possible miscount (u_p) they could contain. The audit units listed below were selected using the random seed value mersenne-twister 20100110 (plus hand picks) combined with the "Sequence" numbers according to the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator, to generate the values in the "Random" column. Each value from the "Random" column was then looked up in the "Cumulative Probability Total" column of the Unofficial Vote Tabulation Report, and the last row for which the "Cumulative Probability Total" was still larger than the Random number was selected.

This table lists the original machine counts, followed by the hand counts (as they become available), for each audit unit. If there is a discrepancy, the "Margin reduction" column lists the net reduction in the margin of victory for the unofficial winner, in votes. It will be negative if the margin increased. If there is a discrepancy, the "Taint" column will have a non-zero number. The KM column (Kaplan-Markov factor) indicates by what fraction each hand count reduces the probability of an incorrect outcome. It is larger when the Taint is greater than zero.

The Cumulative KM column summarizes the progress of the auditing for this contest. It comes from multiplying together all the KM factors up to and including that audit unit. When it becomes less than or equal to the pre-specified P-value (0.5 for this audit), the audit has reached its risk-reduction target. The progress is also shown in the graph, as the remaining risk drops down towards the target.

The first half of this list will be audited first, and if there are not many discrepancies with the hand count, that is all that will be needed. Otherwise, additional units moving down the list will be audited, until the target is reached. For more details, see the references on the main page.

Sequence	Random	Batches	Ballots	Maximum relative miscount: up	CNGAIP	CNGDEM	CNGGRN	CNGLIB	CNGPAF	CNGREP	Under	CNGDEM	CNGLIB	CNGPAF	CNGREP	Margin reduction	Taint	KM	Cumulative KM
000001	0.408279	0606736740	670	0.039707	0	266	0	20	23	289	72	266	20	23	289		0	0.951148	0.951148
000002	0.800619	060678057156	716	0.045551	0	285	0	8	17	364	42	285	8	17	364		0	0.951148	0.904683
000003	0.946763	0606782030	592	0.025497	0	309	0	5	50	162	66	309	5	50	162		0	0.951148	0.860488
000004	0.497369	0606758200	706	0.051452	0	210	0	10	30	402	54	211	10	30	403		0	0.951148	0.818452
000005	0.461929	0606755800	688	0.037873	0	301	0	12	34	274	67	301	12	34	274		0	0.951148	0.778469
000006	0.812794	060678057620	544	0.036670	0	195	0	12	13	291	33	196	12	13	293	-2 (note)	-0.000368	0.950798	0.740167
000007	0.723504	060678034804	436	0.027846	0	175	0	7	7	225	22	205	7	7	195	60 (note)	0.123457	1.085113	0.803164
000008	0.831293	060678061130	863	0.057698	0	330	0	16	6	474	37	330	16	6	474		0	0.951148	0.763929
000009	0.162158	0606721310	440	0.022632	0	197	0	4	35	152	52	197	4	35	152		0	0.951148	0.726609
000010	0.982467	0609549700A	634	0.042457	0	229	0	26	21	336	22	229	26	21	336		0	0.951148	0.691113
000011	0.956941	0606787344	338	0.025096	0	86	0	7	15	186	44	86	7	15	186		0	0.951148	0.657351
000012	0.676670	060678029102	736	0.041769	0	330	0	19	26	323	38	334	19	26	324	3 (note)	0.004115	0.955079	0.627822
000013	0.600174	060678024324	417	0.026471	0	156	0	12	14	201	34	156	12	14	201		0	0.951148	0.597152
000014	0.369314	0606734106	623	0.034607	0	257	0	25	32	238	71	257	25	32	238		0	0.951148	0.567980
000015	0.242124	0606724312	26	0.001662	0	9	0	0	2	12	3	11	2	3	10	4 (note)	0.137931	1.103332	0.626671
000016	0.802390	060678057206	591	0.035753	0	246	0	13	14	279	39	246	13	14	279		0	0.951148	0.596057
000017	0.773400	060678053126	444	0.026528	0	185	0	13	16	204	26	185	13	16	204		0	0.951148	0.566938
000018	0.031712	06005AV130	424	0.028992	0	149	0	13	12	231	19	150	13	12	230	2 (note)	0.003953	0.954923	0.541382
000019	0.278919	0606726108	685	0.039592	0	284	0	14	36	290	61	284	14	36	290		0	0.951148	0.514935
000020	0.689625	060678031204	538	0.038332	0	166	0	13	23	297	39	166	13	23	297		0	0.951148	0.489779
000021	0.364742	0606733224	684	0.048760	0	220	0	10	9	387	58	220	10	11	387	2 (note)	0.000289	0.951423	0.465987
000022	0.686959	060678031132	724	0.046582	0	270	0	14	22	359	59	270	14	22	359		0	0.951148	0.443223
000023	0.980938	0609549700A	634	0.042457	0	229	0	26	21	336	22	229	26	21	336		0	0.951148	0.421571
000024	0.309017	0606728102	685	0.036040	0	316	0	23	27	260	59	316	23	27	260		0	0.951148	0.400976
000025	0.971225	0606789318	606	0.042686	0	174	0	17	43	313	59	174	17	43	313		0	0.951148	0.381388
000026	0.767892	060678052200	527	0.028476	0	247	0	15	21	217	27	247	15	21	217		0	0.951148	0.362757
000027	0.566319	060678023118	579	0.033175	0	247	0	14	34	247	37	247	14	34	247		0	0.951148	0.345035
000028	0.313497	0606728312	710	0.038790	0	323	0	22	25	290	50	323	22	25	290		0	0.951148	0.328180
000029	0.032250	06005CP01	447	0.030883	0	152	0	15	15	244	21	152	15	15	244		0	0.951148	0.312148
000030	0.490957	0606757750	381	0.026643	0	118	0	11	24	202	26	118	11	24	202		0	0.951148	0.296899
000031	0.120903	06009520	990	0.067954	0	332	0	34	33	528	63	332	36	33	528	2 (note)	0.000199	0.951337	0.282451
000032	0.099487	06009350	919	0.055406	0	392	0	30	16	440	41	393	30	16	442	-2 (note)	-0.000244	0.950917	0.268587
000033	0.628309	060678025810	435	0.021486	0	224	0	9	18	164	20	224	9	18	164		0	0.951148	0.255466
000034	0.101225	06009350	919	0.055406	0	392	0	30	16	440	41	393	30	16	442	-2 (note)	-0.000244	0.950917	0.242927
000035	0.289737	0606726420	382	0.021085	0	172	0	14	15	158	23	182	14	15	158	10 (note)	0.027174	0.977717	0.237514
000036	0.996040	0609594939	209	0.013407	0	80	0	4	6	105	14	80	4	6	105		0	0.951148	0.225911
000037	0.543676	060678022102	467	0.028706	0	182	0	13	15	216	41	182	13	15	216		0	0.951148	0.214875
000038	0.127084	06009535	1119	0.075804	0	393	0	35	39	597	55	393	35	39	597		0	0.951148	0.204378
000039	0.121083	06009520	990	0.067954	0	332	0	34	33	528	63	332	36	33	528	2 (note)	0.000199	0.951337	0.194432
000040	0.033285	06005CP01	447	0.030883	0	152	0	15	15	244	21	152	15	15	244		0	0.951148	0.184934
000041	0.566818	060678023126	442	0.028305	0	163	0	16	21	215	27	164	16	21	215	1 (note)	0.002024	0.953078	0.176256
000042	0.828676	060678061100	1020	0.068470	0	395	0	14	12	570	29	395	14	12	570		0	0.951148	0.167646
000043	0.342894	0606731404	628	0.039764	0	228	0	13	36	294	57	228	13	36	294		0	0.951148	0.159456
000044	0.588563	060678023624	436	0.024294	0	180	0	21	27	168	40	180	21	27	168		0	0.951148	0.151666
000045	0.110315	06009430	990	0.063370	0	377	0	34	30	493	56	377	34	30	493		0	0.951148	0.144257
000046	0.277330	0606726108	685	0.039592	0	284	0	14	36	290	61	284	14	36	290		0	0.951148	0.137210
000047	0.047917	06005CP16	319	0.020799	0	115	0	15	12	159	18	115	15	12	159		0	0.951148	0.130507
000048	0.193523	0606722716	644	0.034607	0	294	0	9	25	254	62	294	9	25	254		0	0.951148	0.124132
000049	0.900551	060678089318	537	0.034779	0	191	0	10	40	261	35	191	10	40	261		0	0.951148	0.118068
000050	0.619219	060678025430	538	0.030023	0	248	0	9	15	234	32	249	17	15	234	1 (note)	0.001908	0.952967	0.112514
000051	0.422998	0606737312	530	0.036212	0	185	0	12	11	287	35	186	21	11	287	9 (note)	0.001678	0.952747	0.107198
000052	0.176488	0606722120	568	0.034034	0	212	0	5	18	238	95	212	5	18	238		0	0.951148	0.101961
000053	0.098457	06009340	846	0.047270	0	383	0	37	17	362	47	383	37	17	362		0	0.951148	0.096980

Discrepancy Notes

• ContestBatch 060678057620: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGLIB, with discrepancy -2
  Notes: +2 for CNGREP (Lundgren), +1 for CNGDEM (Durston), no change for others
• ContestBatch 060678034804: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGDEM, with discrepancy 60
  Notes: This large discrepancy (reducing the margin by 60 in an audit unit with 436 ballots) results in the need to audit 3 additional units
• ContestBatch 060678029102: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGDEM, with discrepancy 3
  Notes: +4 for CNGDEM, +1 for CNGREP
• ContestBatch 0606724312: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGDEM, with discrepancy 4
  Notes: This significant discrepancy (reducing the margin by 4 in an audit unit with only 26 ballots) results in the need to audit 3 additional units
• ContestBatch 06005AV130: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGDEM, with discrepancy 2
  Notes: +1 for CNGDEM, -1 for CNGREP
• ContestBatch 0606733224: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGPAF, with discrepancy 2
  Notes: +2 for CNGPAF (Padilla)
• ContestBatch 06009520: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGLIB, with discrepancy 2
  Notes: +2 for CNGLIB (Tuma). Selected twice
• ContestBatch 06009350: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGLIB, with discrepancy -2
  Notes: +1 for CNGDEM, +2 for CNGREP. This audit unit was randomly selected twice (note the selection is "with replacement")
• ContestBatch 06009350: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGLIB, with discrepancy -2
  Notes: +1 for CNGDEM, +2 for CNGREP. This audit unit was randomly selected twice (note the selection is "with replacement")
• ContestBatch 0606726420: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGDEM, with discrepancy 10
  Notes: +10 for CNGDEM
• ContestBatch 06009520: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGLIB, with discrepancy 2
  Notes: +2 for CNGLIB (Tuma). Selected twice
• ContestBatch 060678023126: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGDEM, with discrepancy 1
  Notes: +1 for CNGDEM
• ContestBatch 060678025430: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGDEM, with discrepancy 1
  Notes: taint from +8 for CNGLIB (Tuma) is less than taint from +1 for CNGDEM, so discrepancy is 1
• ContestBatch 0606737312: Max taint was for CNGREP vs CNGLIB, with discrepancy 9
  Notes: taint from +9 for CNGLIB (Tuma) overcomes taint from +1 for CNGDEM, so discrepancy is 9

KM Factor Graph

Here is an interactive graph of the KM factor data. Hover the mouse over the points to see the exact values.

Page generated: Thu, 2 Dec 2010 19:14:00 -0700