Audit Selections and Results for Congress03
- Margin of victory: 5.136%
- Margin adjustment e.g. for ballots not yet tallied : 0
- Total possible miscount / Total apparent margin ("U"): 20.470120
- Number of audit units: 774
Audit units are selected for audit weighted by the maximum possible miscount (up) they could contain. The audit units listed below were selected using the random seed value mersenne-twister 20100110 combined with the "Sequence" numbers according to the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator, to generate the values in the "Random" column. Each value from the "Random" column was then looked up in the "Cumulative Probability Total" column of the Unofficial Vote Tabulation Report, and the last row for which the "Cumulative Probability Total" was still larger than the Random number was selected.
This table lists the original machine counts, followed by the hand counts (as they become available), for each audit unit. If there is a discrepancy, the "Margin reduction" column lists the net reduction in the margin of victory for the unofficial winner, in votes. It will be negative if the margin increased. If there is a discrepancy, the "Taint" column will have a non-zero number. The KM column (Kaplan-Markov factor) indicates by what fraction each hand count reduces the probability of an incorrect outcome. It is larger when the Taint is greater than zero.
The Cumulative KM column summarizes the progress of the auditing for this contest. It comes from multiplying together all the KM factors up to and including that audit unit. When it becomes less than or equal to the pre-specified P-value (0.5 for this audit), the audit has reached its risk-reduction target. The progress is also shown in the graph, as the remaining risk drops down towards the target.
The first half of this list will be audited first, and if there are not many discrepancies with the hand count, that is all that will be needed. Otherwise, additional units moving down the list will be audited, until the target is reached. For more details, see the references on the main page.
Sequence | Random | Batches | Ballots | Maximum relative miscount: up | CNGAIP | CNGDEM | CNGGRN | CNGLIB | CNGPAF | CNGREP | Under | CNGDEM | CNGLIB | CNGPAF | CNGREP | Margin reduction | Taint | KM | Cumulative KM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
000001 | 0.408279 | 0606736740 | 670 | 0.039707 | 0 | 266 | 0 | 20 | 23 | 289 | 72 | 266 | 20 | 23 | 289 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.951148 | |
000002 | 0.800619 | 060678057156 | 716 | 0.045551 | 0 | 285 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 364 | 42 | 285 | 8 | 17 | 364 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.904683 | |
000003 | 0.946763 | 0606782030 | 592 | 0.025497 | 0 | 309 | 0 | 5 | 50 | 162 | 66 | 309 | 5 | 50 | 162 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.860488 | |
000004 | 0.497369 | 0606758200 | 706 | 0.051452 | 0 | 210 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 402 | 54 | 211 | 10 | 30 | 403 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.818452 | |
000005 | 0.461929 | 0606755800 | 688 | 0.037873 | 0 | 301 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 274 | 67 | 301 | 12 | 34 | 274 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.778469 | |
000006 | 0.812794 | 060678057620 | 544 | 0.036670 | 0 | 195 | 0 | 12 | 13 | 291 | 33 | 196 | 12 | 13 | 293 | -2 (note) | -0.000368 | 0.950798 | 0.740167 |
000007 | 0.831293 | 060678061130 | 863 | 0.057698 | 0 | 330 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 474 | 37 | 330 | 16 | 6 | 474 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.704008 | |
000008 | 0.162158 | 0606721310 | 440 | 0.022632 | 0 | 197 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 152 | 52 | 197 | 4 | 35 | 152 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.669616 | |
000009 | 0.982467 | 0609549700A | 634 | 0.042457 | 0 | 229 | 0 | 26 | 21 | 336 | 22 | 229 | 26 | 21 | 336 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.636904 | |
000010 | 0.956941 | 0606787344 | 338 | 0.025096 | 0 | 86 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 186 | 44 | 86 | 7 | 15 | 186 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.605791 | |
000011 | 0.676670 | 060678029102 | 736 | 0.041769 | 0 | 330 | 0 | 19 | 26 | 323 | 38 | 334 | 19 | 26 | 324 | 3 (note) | 0.004115 | 0.955079 | 0.578578 |
000012 | 0.600174 | 060678024324 | 417 | 0.026471 | 0 | 156 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 201 | 34 | 156 | 12 | 14 | 201 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.550313 | |
000013 | 0.369314 | 0606734106 | 623 | 0.034607 | 0 | 257 | 0 | 25 | 32 | 238 | 71 | 257 | 25 | 32 | 238 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.523429 | |
000014 | 0.802390 | 060678057206 | 591 | 0.035753 | 0 | 246 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 279 | 39 | 246 | 13 | 14 | 279 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.497859 | |
000015 | 0.773400 | 060678053126 | 444 | 0.026528 | 0 | 185 | 0 | 13 | 16 | 204 | 26 | 185 | 13 | 16 | 204 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.473538 | |
000016 | 0.031712 | 06005AV130 | 424 | 0.028992 | 0 | 149 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 231 | 19 | 150 | 13 | 12 | 230 | 2 (note) | 0.003953 | 0.954923 | 0.452192 |
000017 | 0.278919 | 0606726108 | 685 | 0.039592 | 0 | 284 | 0 | 14 | 36 | 290 | 61 | 284 | 14 | 36 | 290 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.430102 | |
000018 | 0.689625 | 060678031204 | 538 | 0.038332 | 0 | 166 | 0 | 13 | 23 | 297 | 39 | 166 | 13 | 23 | 297 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.409090 | |
000019 | 0.364742 | 0606733224 | 684 | 0.048760 | 0 | 220 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 387 | 58 | 220 | 10 | 11 | 387 | 2 (note) | 0.000289 | 0.951423 | 0.389218 |
000020 | 0.686959 | 060678031132 | 724 | 0.046582 | 0 | 270 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 359 | 59 | 270 | 14 | 22 | 359 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.370204 | |
000021 | 0.980938 | 0609549700A | 634 | 0.042457 | 0 | 229 | 0 | 26 | 21 | 336 | 22 | 229 | 26 | 21 | 336 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.352119 | |
000022 | 0.309017 | 0606728102 | 685 | 0.036040 | 0 | 316 | 0 | 23 | 27 | 260 | 59 | 316 | 23 | 27 | 260 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.334917 | |
000023 | 0.971225 | 0606789318 | 606 | 0.042686 | 0 | 174 | 0 | 17 | 43 | 313 | 59 | 174 | 17 | 43 | 313 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.318556 | |
000024 | 0.767892 | 060678052200 | 527 | 0.028476 | 0 | 247 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 217 | 27 | 247 | 15 | 21 | 217 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.302994 | |
000025 | 0.566319 | 060678023118 | 579 | 0.033175 | 0 | 247 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 247 | 37 | 247 | 14 | 34 | 247 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.288192 | |
000026 | 0.313497 | 0606728312 | 710 | 0.038790 | 0 | 323 | 0 | 22 | 25 | 290 | 50 | 323 | 22 | 25 | 290 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.274114 | |
000027 | 0.032250 | 06005CP01 | 447 | 0.030883 | 0 | 152 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 244 | 21 | 152 | 15 | 15 | 244 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.260723 | |
000028 | 0.490957 | 0606757750 | 381 | 0.026643 | 0 | 118 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 202 | 26 | 118 | 11 | 24 | 202 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.247986 | |
000029 | 0.120903 | 06009520 | 990 | 0.067954 | 0 | 332 | 0 | 34 | 33 | 528 | 63 | 332 | 36 | 33 | 528 | 2 (note) | 0.000199 | 0.951337 | 0.235918 |
000030 | 0.099487 | 06009350 | 919 | 0.055406 | 0 | 392 | 0 | 30 | 16 | 440 | 41 | 393 | 30 | 16 | 442 | -2 (note) | -0.000244 | 0.950917 | 0.224339 |
000031 | 0.628309 | 060678025810 | 435 | 0.021486 | 0 | 224 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 164 | 20 | 224 | 9 | 18 | 164 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.213379 | |
000032 | 0.101225 | 06009350 | 919 | 0.055406 | 0 | 392 | 0 | 30 | 16 | 440 | 41 | 393 | 30 | 16 | 442 | -2 (note) | -0.000244 | 0.950917 | 0.202906 |
000033 | 0.289737 | 0606726420 | 382 | 0.021085 | 0 | 172 | 0 | 14 | 15 | 158 | 23 | 182 | 14 | 15 | 158 | 10 (note) | 0.027174 | 0.977717 | 0.198385 |
000034 | 0.996040 | 0609594939 | 209 | 0.013407 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 105 | 14 | 80 | 4 | 6 | 105 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.188693 | |
000035 | 0.543676 | 060678022102 | 467 | 0.028706 | 0 | 182 | 0 | 13 | 15 | 216 | 41 | 182 | 13 | 15 | 216 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.179475 | |
000036 | 0.127084 | 06009535 | 1119 | 0.075804 | 0 | 393 | 0 | 35 | 39 | 597 | 55 | 393 | 35 | 39 | 597 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.170707 | |
000037 | 0.121083 | 06009520 | 990 | 0.067954 | 0 | 332 | 0 | 34 | 33 | 528 | 63 | 332 | 36 | 33 | 528 | 2 (note) | 0.000199 | 0.951337 | 0.162400 |
000038 | 0.033285 | 06005CP01 | 447 | 0.030883 | 0 | 152 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 244 | 21 | 152 | 15 | 15 | 244 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.154467 | |
000039 | 0.566818 | 060678023126 | 442 | 0.028305 | 0 | 163 | 0 | 16 | 21 | 215 | 27 | 164 | 16 | 21 | 215 | 1 (note) | 0.002024 | 0.953078 | 0.147219 |
000040 | 0.828676 | 060678061100 | 1020 | 0.068470 | 0 | 395 | 0 | 14 | 12 | 570 | 29 | 395 | 14 | 12 | 570 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.140027 | |
000041 | 0.342894 | 0606731404 | 628 | 0.039764 | 0 | 228 | 0 | 13 | 36 | 294 | 57 | 228 | 13 | 36 | 294 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.133186 | |
000042 | 0.588563 | 060678023624 | 436 | 0.024294 | 0 | 180 | 0 | 21 | 27 | 168 | 40 | 180 | 21 | 27 | 168 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.126680 | |
000043 | 0.110315 | 06009430 | 990 | 0.063370 | 0 | 377 | 0 | 34 | 30 | 493 | 56 | 377 | 34 | 30 | 493 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.120492 | |
000044 | 0.277330 | 0606726108 | 685 | 0.039592 | 0 | 284 | 0 | 14 | 36 | 290 | 61 | 284 | 14 | 36 | 290 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.114605 | |
000045 | 0.047917 | 06005CP16 | 319 | 0.020799 | 0 | 115 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 159 | 18 | 115 | 15 | 12 | 159 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.109007 | |
000046 | 0.193523 | 0606722716 | 644 | 0.034607 | 0 | 294 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 254 | 62 | 294 | 9 | 25 | 254 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.103681 | |
000047 | 0.900551 | 060678089318 | 537 | 0.034779 | 0 | 191 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 261 | 35 | 191 | 10 | 40 | 261 | 0 | 0.951148 | 0.098616 |
Discrepancy Notes
- ContestBatch 060678057620: +2 for CNGREP (Lundgren), +1 for CNGDEM (Durston), no change for others
- ContestBatch 060678029102: +4 for CNGDEM, +1 for CNGREP
- ContestBatch 06005AV130: +1 for CNGDEM, -1 for CNGREP
- ContestBatch 0606733224: +2 for CNGPAF (Padilla)
- ContestBatch 06009520: +2 for CNGLIB (Tuma). Selected twice
- ContestBatch 06009350: +1 for CNGDEM, +2 for CNGREP. This audit unit was randomly selected twice (note the selection is "with replacement")
- ContestBatch 06009350: +1 for CNGDEM, +2 for CNGREP. This audit unit was randomly selected twice (note the selection is "with replacement")
- ContestBatch 0606726420: +10 for CNGDEM
- ContestBatch 06009520: +2 for CNGLIB (Tuma). Selected twice
- ContestBatch 060678023126: +1 for CNGDEM
KM Factor Graph
Here is an interactive graph of the KM factor data. Hover the mouse over the points to see the exact values.
Page generated: Thu, 2 Dec 2010 14:25:35 -0700