Audit Selections and Results for Congress03

Audit units are selected for audit weighted by the maximum possible miscount (up) they could contain. The audit units listed below were selected using the random seed value mersenne-twister 20100110 combined with the "Sequence" numbers according to the "Sum of Square Roots" pseudorandom number generator, to generate the values in the "Random" column. Each value from the "Random" column was then looked up in the "Cumulative Probability Total" column of the Unofficial Vote Tabulation Report, and the last row for which the "Cumulative Probability Total" was still larger than the Random number was selected.

This table lists the original machine counts, followed by the hand counts (as they become available), for each audit unit. If there is a discrepancy, the "Margin reduction" column lists the net reduction in the margin of victory for the unofficial winner, in votes. It will be negative if the margin increased. If there is a discrepancy, the "Taint" column will have a non-zero number. The KM column (Kaplan-Markov factor) indicates by what fraction each hand count reduces the probability of an incorrect outcome. It is larger when the Taint is greater than zero.

The Cumulative KM column summarizes the progress of the auditing for this contest. It comes from multiplying together all the KM factors up to and including that audit unit. When it becomes less than or equal to the pre-specified P-value (0.5 for this audit), the audit has reached its risk-reduction target. The progress is also shown in the graph, as the remaining risk drops down towards the target.

The first half of this list will be audited first, and if there are not many discrepancies with the hand count, that is all that will be needed. Otherwise, additional units moving down the list will be audited, until the target is reached. For more details, see the references on the main page.

Sequence Random Batches Ballots Maximum relative miscount: up CNGAIP CNGDEM CNGGRN CNGLIB CNGPAF CNGREP Under CNGDEM CNGLIB CNGPAF CNGREP Margin reduction Taint KM Cumulative KM
000001 0.408279 0606736740 670 0.039707 0 266 0 20 23 289 72 266 20 23 289 0 0.951148 0.951148
000002 0.800619 060678057156 716 0.045551 0 285 0 8 17 364 42 285 8 17 364 0 0.951148 0.904683
000003 0.946763 0606782030 592 0.025497 0 309 0 5 50 162 66 309 5 50 162 0 0.951148 0.860488
000004 0.497369 0606758200 706 0.051452 0 210 0 10 30 402 54 211 10 30 403 0 0.951148 0.818452
000005 0.461929 0606755800 688 0.037873 0 301 0 12 34 274 67 301 12 34 274 0 0.951148 0.778469
000006 0.812794 060678057620 544 0.036670 0 195 0 12 13 291 33 196 12 13 293 -2 (note) -0.000368 0.950798 0.740167
000007 0.831293 060678061130 863 0.057698 0 330 0 16 6 474 37 330 16 6 474 0 0.951148 0.704008
000008 0.162158 0606721310 440 0.022632 0 197 0 4 35 152 52 197 4 35 152 0 0.951148 0.669616
000009 0.982467 0609549700A 634 0.042457 0 229 0 26 21 336 22 229 26 21 336 0 0.951148 0.636904
000010 0.956941 0606787344 338 0.025096 0 86 0 7 15 186 44 86 7 15 186 0 0.951148 0.605791
000011 0.676670 060678029102 736 0.041769 0 330 0 19 26 323 38 334 19 26 324 3 (note) 0.004115 0.955079 0.578578
000012 0.600174 060678024324 417 0.026471 0 156 0 12 14 201 34 156 12 14 201 0 0.951148 0.550313
000013 0.369314 0606734106 623 0.034607 0 257 0 25 32 238 71 257 25 32 238 0 0.951148 0.523429
000014 0.802390 060678057206 591 0.035753 0 246 0 13 14 279 39 246 13 14 279 0 0.951148 0.497859
000015 0.773400 060678053126 444 0.026528 0 185 0 13 16 204 26 185 13 16 204 0 0.951148 0.473538
000016 0.031712 06005AV130 424 0.028992 0 149 0 13 12 231 19 150 13 12 230 2 (note) 0.003953 0.954923 0.452192
000017 0.278919 0606726108 685 0.039592 0 284 0 14 36 290 61 284 14 36 290 0 0.951148 0.430102
000018 0.689625 060678031204 538 0.038332 0 166 0 13 23 297 39 166 13 23 297 0 0.951148 0.409090
000019 0.364742 0606733224 684 0.048760 0 220 0 10 9 387 58 220 10 11 387 2 (note) 0.000289 0.951423 0.389218
000020 0.686959 060678031132 724 0.046582 0 270 0 14 22 359 59 270 14 22 359 0 0.951148 0.370204
000021 0.980938 0609549700A 634 0.042457 0 229 0 26 21 336 22 229 26 21 336 0 0.951148 0.352119
000022 0.309017 0606728102 685 0.036040 0 316 0 23 27 260 59 316 23 27 260 0 0.951148 0.334917
000023 0.971225 0606789318 606 0.042686 0 174 0 17 43 313 59 174 17 43 313 0 0.951148 0.318556
000024 0.767892 060678052200 527 0.028476 0 247 0 15 21 217 27 247 15 21 217 0 0.951148 0.302994
000025 0.566319 060678023118 579 0.033175 0 247 0 14 34 247 37 247 14 34 247 0 0.951148 0.288192
000026 0.313497 0606728312 710 0.038790 0 323 0 22 25 290 50 323 22 25 290 0 0.951148 0.274114
000027 0.032250 06005CP01 447 0.030883 0 152 0 15 15 244 21 152 15 15 244 0 0.951148 0.260723
000028 0.490957 0606757750 381 0.026643 0 118 0 11 24 202 26 118 11 24 202 0 0.951148 0.247986
000029 0.120903 06009520 990 0.067954 0 332 0 34 33 528 63 332 36 33 528 2 (note) 0.000199 0.951337 0.235918
000030 0.099487 06009350 919 0.055406 0 392 0 30 16 440 41 393 30 16 442 -2 (note) -0.000244 0.950917 0.224339
000031 0.628309 060678025810 435 0.021486 0 224 0 9 18 164 20 224 9 18 164 0 0.951148 0.213379
000032 0.101225 06009350 919 0.055406 0 392 0 30 16 440 41 393 30 16 442 -2 (note) -0.000244 0.950917 0.202906
000033 0.289737 0606726420 382 0.021085 0 172 0 14 15 158 23 182 14 15 158 10 (note) 0.027174 0.977717 0.198385
000034 0.996040 0609594939 209 0.013407 0 80 0 4 6 105 14 80 4 6 105 0 0.951148 0.188693
000035 0.543676 060678022102 467 0.028706 0 182 0 13 15 216 41 182 13 15 216 0 0.951148 0.179475
000036 0.127084 06009535 1119 0.075804 0 393 0 35 39 597 55 393 35 39 597 0 0.951148 0.170707
000037 0.121083 06009520 990 0.067954 0 332 0 34 33 528 63 332 36 33 528 2 (note) 0.000199 0.951337 0.162400
000038 0.033285 06005CP01 447 0.030883 0 152 0 15 15 244 21 152 15 15 244 0 0.951148 0.154467
000039 0.566818 060678023126 442 0.028305 0 163 0 16 21 215 27 164 16 21 215 1 (note) 0.002024 0.953078 0.147219
000040 0.828676 060678061100 1020 0.068470 0 395 0 14 12 570 29 395 14 12 570 0 0.951148 0.140027
000041 0.342894 0606731404 628 0.039764 0 228 0 13 36 294 57 228 13 36 294 0 0.951148 0.133186
000042 0.588563 060678023624 436 0.024294 0 180 0 21 27 168 40 180 21 27 168 0 0.951148 0.126680
000043 0.110315 06009430 990 0.063370 0 377 0 34 30 493 56 377 34 30 493 0 0.951148 0.120492
000044 0.277330 0606726108 685 0.039592 0 284 0 14 36 290 61 284 14 36 290 0 0.951148 0.114605
000045 0.047917 06005CP16 319 0.020799 0 115 0 15 12 159 18 115 15 12 159 0 0.951148 0.109007
000046 0.193523 0606722716 644 0.034607 0 294 0 9 25 254 62 294 9 25 254 0 0.951148 0.103681
000047 0.900551 060678089318 537 0.034779 0 191 0 10 40 261 35 191 10 40 261 0 0.951148 0.098616

Discrepancy Notes

KM Factor Graph

Here is an interactive graph of the KM factor data. Hover the mouse over the points to see the exact values.

Page generated: Thu, 2 Dec 2010 14:25:35 -0700