From waterman@enfo.com Mon May 24 10:34:27 2004 Return-Path: Received: from denali.enfo.com (enfo.com [199.45.135.12]) by bcn.boulder.co.us (8.12.10/8.12.8/ITS-6.0/bcn) with ESMTP id i4OGY4Un002464 for ; Mon, 24 May 2004 10:34:06 -0600 (MDT) Received: (from waterman@localhost) by denali.enfo.com (8.9.0/8.9.0) id KAA28840 for waterman@bcn.boulder.co.us; Mon, 24 May 2004 10:33:12 -0600 (MDT) Received: from culter.Colorado.EDU (root@culter.Colorado.EDU [128.138.77.16]) by denali.enfo.com (8.9.0/8.9.0) with ESMTP id JAA28706 for ; Mon, 24 May 2004 09:53:44 -0600 (MDT) Received: from culter.Colorado.EDU (markl@localhost [127.0.0.1]) by culter.Colorado.EDU (8.12.10/8.12.10/UnixOps+Hesiod) with ESMTP id i4OFqspj024528; Mon, 24 May 2004 09:52:55 -0600 (MDT) Received: (from markl@localhost) by culter.Colorado.EDU (8.12.10/8.12.8/Submit) id i4OFqgJs024526; Mon, 24 May 2004 09:52:42 -0600 (MDT) Date: Mon, 24 May 2004 09:52:42 -0600 (MDT) Message-Id: <200405241552.i4OFqgJs024526@culter.Colorado.EDU> From: Mark.Losleben@Colorado.EDU To: DJames1717@aol.com, James.H.Butler@noaa.gov, James.Syvitski@Colorado.EDU, James.W.Elkins@noaa.gov, John.A.Ogren@noaa.gov, Scott.Entrekin@noaa.gov, ShelleyJ@ci.boulder.co.us, Stephen.A.Montzka@noaa.gov, Tfoster1@hotmail.com, Thayne.M.Thompson@noaa.gov, bert@crrel.usace.army.mil, billgage@ix.netcom.com, bradu@cires.colorado.edu, cosper@indra.com, deander@usgs.gov, deborah_luchsinger@nrel.gov, denisec55@yahoo.com, dpinesy@yahoo.com, erin.bissell@Colorado.EDU, george.kiladas@noaa.gov, jdheiden@aol.com, jean@nednet.net, jhardy@crrel41.crrel.usace.army.mil, johnk@ntsg.umt.edu, klaus.wolter@noaa.gov, larrylcnm@juno.com, litaori@telhai.ac.il, martin.hoerling@noaa.gov, matt@nednet.net, mayer@geop.ubc.ca, mokeefe136@aol.com, nicholas.pepin@port.ac.uk, nolan@ccc.atmos.colostate.edu, nwtlter@lists.colorado.edu, pedrick@culter.Colorado.EDU, pmb@rmtrr.org, rlax@kryos.Colorado.EDU, sdossett@uiuc.edu, timbard99@yahoo.com, timothy.kittel@Colorado.EDU, waterman@enfo.com Subject: Melt-out 2004 at C1 Cc: connie.woodhouse@noaa.gov Sender: waterman@enfo.com X-Spam-Status: No, hits=0.9 required=5.0 tests=NO_REAL_NAME version=2.53 X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 2.53 (1.174.2.15-2003-03-30-exp) Status: O Melt-out 2004 Greetings! The snowpack at Niwot (C1) melted completely away on May 23, 2004. For perspective, since 1981, seven years had an earlier melt-out, and two others had the same melt-out date (1991, 2001). Also, only two years melted out faster, going from peak to zero SWE, 1984 and1995. However, the number of days from peak to melt-out is a function of when peak occurs, at least as much as the amount of SWE (the faster melt- outs occur with the later peak snowpacks). Nevertheless, the earlier melt-out dates do tend to result in longer, drier summers, so let us hope for good summer precipitation amounts. In the relatively short term (1981-2002), melt-out dates and cumulative winter precipitation (from October 1 to melt-out) have been getting earlier and drier on a state wide scale, according to NRCS data. The state of Colorado as a whole shows earlier melt-outs of 0.47 days/year, and less precipitation (0.30inches/year). However, the only individual basins showing significant trends are the Arkansas, with 0.64 days/year earlier melt-out, and the Upper Rio Grande with 0.52 inches/year less cumulative winter precipitation. For your perusal, the records of peak and melt-out follow (since 1981). So, until next season, have a safe, and hopefully forest fire-free summer! Cheers, Mark Water Peak SWE Peak Date Melt-Out Date # of Days Melt Rate Peak Day (1=Oct1) Year 2004 11.6 04/26/04 05/23/04 27 0.43 209 2003 15.8 04/08/03 05/29/03 51 0.31 190 2002 7.0 03/28/02 05/01/02 34 0.21 179 2001 9.8 04/24/01 05/24/01 30 0.33 206 2000 12.5 04/05/00 05/17/00 42 0.30 188 1999 14.7 05/04/99 06/05/99 32 0.46 216 1998 15.2 04/29/98 06/03/98 35 0.43 211 1997 20.4 05/03/97 06/18/97 46 0.44 215 1996 20.6 04/08/96 05/23/96 45 0.46 191 1995 18.1 05/31/95 06/24/95 24 0.75 243 1994 15.5 04/16/94 05/25/94 39 0.40 198 1993 15.9 04/21/93 05/28/93 37 0.43 203 1992 12.6 04/01/92 05/16/92 45 0.28 184 1991 9.4 04/01/91 05/29/91 58 0.16 183 1990 15.3 04/14/90 06/04/90 51 0.30 196 1989 10.8 04/13/89 05/21/89 38 0.28 195 1988 14.0 03/31/88 05/27/88 57 0.25 183 1987 11.9 04/14/87 05/18/87 34 0.35 196 1986 16.8 04/19/86 06/04/86 46 0.37 201 1985 10.9 04/06/85 05/23/85 47 0.23 188 1984 21.1 05/08/84 06/02/84 25 0.84 221 1983 18.3 05/21/83 06/24/83 34 0.54 233 1982 15.1 04/16/82 06/11/82 56 0.27 198 1981 7.6 04/09/81 05/09/81 30 0.25 191